Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Welcome to the Sofa Wise Guys, another podcast from sources from the Sofa podcast. We air a couple times every single week to recap the weekends as well as give out NFL and college football plays throughout the football season.
This though, the Wise Guys strictly bets plays from two our wise guys here we have Sniper west out of Las Vegas and Aaron Toller out of Southern California.
We got some college football players. I'm pretty sure we'll talk a little baseball and some NFL. So let's start with Sniper. He says he has a few college plays he wants to start off right away. What is it?
[00:00:40] Speaker B: Well, I'll tell you what's pretty cool is we are in the middle of a 60 straight days of football run. I think I sent you guys that meet actually last week.
So yeah, even on Tuesdays and Wednesdays we have a lot of maction as they call it.
Well, there was a game last night, there's a game tonight. In fact, I have a, I have a pretty big play tonight which you can find for sale on various different websites.
Mainly wizardsportspix.com if you want to go check out that website. It's where I sell a lot of my content.
But I'm gonna start on Friday night here. So Friday night lights up in Seattle, Washington. We get Iowa and Washington here.
Iowa, they just lost Ohio state. They lost 31 to 14. So they will want to bounce back here. In my opinion, they are four and one on season. The big controversy with this game is Hank Brown, the starting quarterback for Iowa is injured. He hurt his shoulder.
So enter Jeremy Heck A Winski. Let me repeat that name. Jeremy Heckowinski. What the. Heckowinski, everybody. So he's going to be starting and to be honest with you, Iowa, they don't think is a downgraded quarterback at all because it was really a coin flip between Hank Brown and Jeremy Heckowinski coming into this year as far as who the starter was going to be. So Iowa was very high on this guy and now he gets a chance to start. He gets to take the team down the field and put the team on his back for a game, at least one game here and we'll see how well he can do.
But I just don't think it's really too much of a drop off here for Iowa, which is, you know, that bodes well for them.
They do have L.J. phillips Jr. He's, he's been hurt but you know, he's been running the ball. He ran a little bit last week as well as it relates to Washington. You know, they've lost two straight games. They lost to Minnesota by three points two weeks ago and I had a big play on Minnesota in that game. They won the game outright as a 10 point dog.
Washington lost to USC by four last week. They're now 3 and 2 overall. Oh, and 2 and Big 10 play. So they do need a Big 10 win here.
They have a pretty good quarterback. Demond Williams Jr. He's been productive through the air. 67.5% of passes. He's completed 1300 yards. He is dual threat, 191 yards rushing. But on the year. But Iowa. Here's the thing about Iowa. They have a great defense, right? Kirk Ference, their head coach, his whole mo is, you know, we want to run the ball, we want to play defense. And I think they're going to be able to slow Washington down here. We're catching three and a half here with Iowa. Hawkeyes really like this play. I think Heckinski is going to go out there and put it all, you know, put it all out there, man. He's going to throw the kitchen sink at them and give me Iowa plus three and a half. I'm going to take the points, put them in my back pocket, but would not be surprised at all if they win this game outright. Very similar to what I said last week about San Jose State.
[00:03:18] Speaker C: Dig it.
[00:03:18] Speaker A: Aaron, do you have any feedback on that game? I was kind of looking at this game for one of my Westgate picks actually.
[00:03:24] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean I was leaning towards Iowa as well. I think I was coming in here. West touched on the defense, has been really good. Tough loss against Ohio State.
But like the Buckeyes are one of the more premier programs in the nation. Washington's just been really up and down offensively. They've just not been very consistent. Their defense has been solid as well. That's why we got a low total, what, 41 points I think for this game.
[00:03:47] Speaker A: Oh, wow.
[00:03:48] Speaker C: What worries me, it is a short week. Iowa is traveling to the Pacific Northwest. You know, Wes mentioned the quarterback coming in so, you know, preparation time to get him up to speed is a little down, but I get getting out of that hook. That half point is nice here. They got a veteran coach, he's been there for 20 plus years.
Washington, they've been stumbling here kind of Simone, within the program of where are they at? It's a big game for both teams, right. Iowa obviously is going to want to bounce back, get a win. Washington has lost two in a row. Third desperate for a win.
So yeah, I'm leaning towards Iowa here as well and I wouldn't be surprised if they won outright.
[00:04:25] Speaker A: Beautiful sniper. What's your second game?
[00:04:28] Speaker B: Well, I'm going to Saturday this time and I'm going again on one of the later games on the board. We talked about this last week, right? It's either your get right spot or you've already made a bunch of money and let's see if I can double it up or you know, make a little extra money. On top of the day, Hawaii, Arizona State.
So remember last week I faded Hawaii. I took San Jose State over Hawaii. This time I'm going to take the under. It's sitting at 50. It might be a 49 and a half honestly by the time this total closes at kickoff. But Hawaii's offense is really struggling, man. Micah Allah, he's had some injury issues. He turned the ball over twice last week versus the San Jose State Spartans.
The Rainbow warriors, they've scored 20 points or fewer in three of their past four games.
Arizona State, they did not have a good game last week. They lost 5519 to Baylor. So they are going to want to show up defensively here. In fact, Kenny Dillingham said that we need to be playing better defensively. We can't giving up 55 points. That's embarrassing for our program. Cutter bully their quarterback. He did have two picks last week. So I think, I think both quarterbacks and both head coaches are really going to preach no turnovers and they're really going to preach defense in this spot. Likely under quite a bit. It's never a bad idea too on one of the last games on the board to look at the under simply because it's usually a good public fade. The public is usually hammering the over in this instance late night Saturday night and I'm going to go under and fade the public here. Hawaii, Arizona state under 50.
[00:05:50] Speaker A: Under 50. You just love the late night games, don't you?
[00:05:53] Speaker B: Yeah, man.
[00:05:54] Speaker C: So the late night games on the west coast, man.
[00:05:57] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah. A lot of value there, honestly.
[00:05:59] Speaker A: By the way, we got a lot of love on that clip.
Regarding the little Red Bull coffee segment, it was so funny how to clip that out. So people definitely loved it. Man. That was great. Any other plays from you sniper before we head to Aaron?
[00:06:13] Speaker B: I'll throw it out here real quick tomorrow night.
[00:06:17] Speaker A: Go ahead and tell people where they can find your picks, where they can find premium plays.
Yeah.
[00:06:22] Speaker B: Wizardsportspics.com I'm wearing, yeah, I'm wearing the hat right now. Wizardsportspics.com for those of you that are actually watching this on YouTube which by the way you can watch the show on YouTube as well as listen to whatever you know, app you listen to your, your podcasts on.
But yeah, wizardsports picks.com you can find me over there.
I, I would say just go over there for this football season.
Yeah, I'm on a bunch of different sites but that's. You'll get your most bang for your buck over there. We do a lot of promos and stuff and percentage off so. But I like, I like south and South Alabama here.
Moneyline over Arkansas State. They're a little bit of a dog. I think they're plus one. This will be on Thursday night if you guys have time to get it in. But I won't go into analysis just for time purposes but I really think South Alabama can upset Arkansas here on Thursday evening.
[00:07:08] Speaker A: That's amazing. Aaron, any feedback on the Hawaii ASU game or should we move on to your picks?
[00:07:14] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean look, Arizona State got embarrassed last week against Baylor. Baylor what? Dropped, I want to say what 45, 46 points on him and embarrassment 55. Yeah, it was, it was bad. So Arizona State was coming off a buy after that London trip against Kansas. Obviously they left their defense in London because it did not travel to the Tempe, Arizona, Hawaii like Wes mentioned, offensively they've been a mess all year. The consistency that's not been there and that's against weaker competition. They couldn't even, even score against San Jose State. Now Arizona State embarrassed at home. You know that defense is going to come out fired up. I mean I believe Arizona State is almost a three touchdown favorite as well.
So I think Arizona State defensively is going to be good in this one.
I would probably even lean towards if west likes the under, probably even team total under for Hawaii, whatever that's at. Because Arizona State is going to be mad. They're going to be angry, going to be a lot more focused trying to get a big win here as once they get back into Big 12 Conference play.
[00:08:15] Speaker A: Dig it. All right Aaron, time for your college well place for the wise guys show. What is it?
[00:08:21] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean I liked Iowa as well.
You know Wes was going with the west coast games there.
I'll stick in the west coast. You know since we're watching late night games. He gave out, you know Arizona State, Hawaii, you got Boise State traveling here to Fresno State.
You can get Fresno State as a seven point basic dog at home.
These are, I believe These are new PAC 12 conference matchup. If I'm not mistaken. Right now, the State versus State, Fresno versus Boise.
[00:08:49] Speaker B: Correct.
[00:08:50] Speaker C: Fresno State look pretty strong. They're coming off a victory against Washington State. That's a nice win there on the road. They come home now. Their only loss was that open room which they looked really, really bad against usc.
Obviously the USC already had a tune up game the week before that in the week zero against San Jose State. Boise State has looked fabulous. They've beaten Memphis, they played Oregon tough. But I'm going to ride Fresno State. The Bulldogs here getting a touchdown at home. I believe this will be a competitive game. Fresno State defensively has been better as of late. They've got to be able to run the ball. I think they can keep possession, limit the time of possession for Boise State.
I believe this will be a close, close game. So I'll take the Fresno State Bulldogs plus seven at home.
[00:09:33] Speaker B: Yeah, you know what, I'll chime in.
I, I do a show, another show about three or four times a week with another very sharp sports better named Tony Karpinski. He's out of Pennsylvania and he is also on Fresno State. It's one of his bigger plays of the week. So there's, there's some sharp information behind that one for sure.
[00:09:51] Speaker C: There you go.
[00:09:51] Speaker A: I did. I dig it.
You've been up on Fresno State pretty on the point, Aaron this year.
If you guys want to catch some more of his takes, definitely watch the source from the sofa podcast. But he's been on it. Them and Northwestern, I gotta say, you've been on it all year.
[00:10:09] Speaker C: And west with Hawaii, look, these late night games on the west coast, like you know everybody on the second Hawaii game, yeah, everybody on the east coast is sleeping. So literally we're giving you games. Put your money on it. You wake up, cash that, cash that ticket, you're feeling good. Going into Sunday morning NFL kickoff, we
[00:10:27] Speaker B: get the early game, we get the early NFL game again. In fact, I think we have early NFL games for like six or seven more weeks in a row, something like that. Like they go to London, they go to Ireland, they go to France, they go to Spain. We're playing all over the place. But yeah, we're gonna have 9:30am Eastern, 6:30am Pacific for like six or seven weeks straight, something like that. So my point, going back to last week, you can stay up late, you can cash your Hawaii tickets, cash your Fresno State tickets, watch some Aussie rules football or some F1 or whatever happens overnight and maybe some Chinese ping pong, throw that in there with some parlays max out your credit cards, take a loan out on your home, and then put it all on the. The game in the morning.
[00:11:08] Speaker A: Sniper. Zoo.
[00:11:09] Speaker C: Nick.
[00:11:09] Speaker A: They might have to be Rainbow Warrior after this one. We'll see.
[00:11:15] Speaker B: No, you know, it's a running. We have a guy at our local pub and everyone always just clowns. He's a real nice guy. He's a really good friend of mine. But they said, you know, everyone's calling him, you know, gay, right? They're like, dude, if you played football, you. You'd either play for Hawaii or Massachusetts because you're either a minute man or you're a Rainbow warrior.
[00:11:41] Speaker A: Oh, man, I love it. I love it. All right, any baseball plays? You guys want to give out any baseball plays? We're right in the middle.
Coming towards down the stretch for the Al and NLDs.
Pretty epic.
[00:11:56] Speaker C: Yeah.
[00:11:56] Speaker B: You know what I was just telling you guys off camera? I was telling Aaron that I have a. I have. I parlayed all four series team. I took the Dodgers to advance, the brewers to advance, the Rays to advance. All look decent. And then I have the Guardians. I wanted to take the White Sox, I really, really did, but I kind of chickened out and I wound up taking the Guardians and I might get got. I mean, Cleveland, they're up 401. We're recording this on Wednesday. It's. It's 5:38 or 5:28 Eastern, 2:28 Pacific. Guardians are up for one right now, but, you know, they're down to nothing in a five game series. We'll see if they can come back. But not feeling so good about the Guardians.
[00:12:32] Speaker A: I don't feel good about that one either.
All right, let's transition over to some NFL games then.
Do you guys want to go through the full slate or pick out like maybe a little six pack, a little 12 pack?
[00:12:45] Speaker C: What.
[00:12:45] Speaker A: What we got going on today?
[00:12:48] Speaker B: No. Yeah, let's do the whole sleigh. I like going down every single game. Number one, it gives everybody information on every single game. Number two, it helps because we do this on Wednesday, like I said, so we have, you know, a lot of time before Sunday. Football helps me kind of prep and just talk through each single game because I don't necessarily have my whole card released yet.
So me doing this show essentially kind of helps me prepare for what car and what bets. I'm going to do some bets. I already know what I'm going to be betting some. I don't. So I like to sit here and talk them all out with you guys. Starting with Thursday night, right. We got Tampa and Dallas here. I actually do have a play on this game.
It's a little scary. I'm curious to hear Aaron's thoughts on this because the. So the total is 47 and a half here.
[00:13:25] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:13:26] Speaker B: We have the Buccaneers at the Cowboys.
I'm kind of shocked this total is not higher.
And the fact that it's 47 and a half initially make me like the under because if you look at Cowboys totals just, you know, all four of their games just. I have it. I have the data right here. So they play the Giants in week one on the Sunday Night Football. If you remember, that game went over and it was. The total was 47 and a half. It hit 48. It went over. But then against the Commanders is 51 and a half. Then 54 and a half against the Ravens and 48 and a half against the Texans. Now we get 47 and a half. Now I know why the odds makers are setting 47 and a half as the total. They don't believe in Tampa. They don't believe Tampa is going to be able to score. Jalen Daniels, obviously, you know, last week they're often struggling a little bit.
Packers wound up winning that game by a field goal.
But I think if they're going to have success against any defense in the NFL, it'll be against the Cowboys. The Cowboys are just not a very good defense at all. They're giving up all kind of points. If you look at their. They gave up 28 against the Giants, 20 against the Commanders, 34 against the Ravens, 30 against the Texans. The Texans often think that all that great either and they got 30 to them. How are they going to stop Tampa Bay? I mean, I know that it's Jalen Daniels and I know it's not proven, but I think if there's any time that Jalen Daniels is ever going to have success in this league, it's going to be facing this Cowboys defense. I know they brought over Joey Porter Jr. I get that. Somehow magically his back was completely fixed and he was able to play last week. You know, after he gets amazing. Obviously the Steelers. Yeah, obviously the Steelers just weren't going to play. They didn't want to go to get to get injured because they wanted to trade him. Right. So.
But I'm going to go over. I'm not going to. I feel like it's a trap line a little bit because I just feel like this is a 30 to 20 type of game. 30, 21, 28, 24, something like that the spreads, nine and a half. Wouldn't be surprised if Dallas wins in a blowout. But I will tell you this.
If Tampa has any shot to win this game outright, any shot, they're not going to win this game. 17, 14, they're going to win this game. 30, 28, something like that. Like Tampa has to be an active dog to have a chance in this game. They know they have to score. So I'm going to go with the over just because I think that it could be a situation where we get like 40 to 10. Cowboys also and it still goes over, you know, so I like the over 47 and a half here at.
[00:15:45] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean, I would tend to agree. I mean, I'm looking at it right now. 47 and a half does seem a bit low. I'm kind of shocked it's not more towards 49 and a half. 50. Like Wes mentioned on some of these games. I agree what he said. Look, Tampa offensively been dog shit, but this is a chance for them to. It's a get right game, right? If they're ever going to be a game where they get 20 to 24 points, this seems like it's it. And Dallas, offensively, they've been rolling. I mean, ceedee Lamb, what, 17 catches this last game, they've been. They haven't even really got George Pickens going yet, which is kind of scary. But Dak control. This offense has been great. And let's not forget short week preparation. Defense is kind of more of kind of a base kind of defensive. Look. Tampa, with Daniels making a second start, I tend to agree. I think this is like a 28, 24, 31, 24 type game. I would lean towards the over 47 and a half as well.
[00:16:38] Speaker B: Yeah, you know, the Cowboys, they're averaging 30.5 points per game and an NFL best 3.39 points per possession, which is a 25 year record right now. So it's a historically good offense right now. So I gotta roll the over.
[00:16:57] Speaker A: Yeah, 100. I actually don't have the games in front of me because I usually just go by the circa and I don't think they put that out yet. I think they usually put that on Thursday or later Wednesday night. But what we got. Philadelphia.
[00:17:10] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, we got the. I have the whole schedule right here. I can just. We can go from.
[00:17:14] Speaker C: Okay.
[00:17:14] Speaker A: Bust it out.
[00:17:16] Speaker B: Yeah, we'll go. Eagles, Jags here. Obviously this game is across the pond.
I don't remember if this is because last week's game was in Tottenham Same.
[00:17:26] Speaker C: This one's the same spot.
[00:17:28] Speaker B: Okay.
[00:17:28] Speaker C: So that's what it's showing here on my game notes.
[00:17:31] Speaker B: Yeah. So it's still in England.
Yeah. So the Jacksonville Jaguars, no stranger to playing in London. In fact, they play next week in London, too. The Jags are across the pond for two weeks straight, which is very interesting.
[00:17:45] Speaker A: They've done a few times.
[00:17:46] Speaker B: Yeah. But Philly just did not look good at all last week. Again. I mean, the Rams dominated that game. The, the score of that game, you know, Philly losing that game 24 to 20, that was not indicative of how much they were outplayed by the Ram. The Rams were by far, on paper, the better team in that game.
They just. Sean Manion's offense hasn't really come together. He's got Jalen Hurts playing under center. You know, before the season, they said, oh, this is going to be great. This is going to work out good. But it hasn't worked out all that great.
I mean, I've said this before on this show and many shows. Jalen Hurts. It's his fifth or sixth offensive coordinator in five or six years. There's no consistency with that Philadelphia team.
It always seems like Sirianni's on the hot seat. I think he's on the hot seat again here. They have injury issues too, with Saquon and everything.
[00:18:31] Speaker A: But I.
[00:18:32] Speaker B: Seven and a half points a lot. It's actually eight and a half at some bucks.
[00:18:36] Speaker C: Really.
[00:18:36] Speaker B: I don't know. I'm gonna. I'm gonna say no opinion on this game. If, if, you know, gun to my head, I'd probably lay it with Jacksonville.
[00:18:45] Speaker A: These are the kind of games I love International. It's always the opposite. I would take Eagles all day. It's a fire seller, things blowing up and it's the NFL go opposite.
[00:18:54] Speaker C: Yeah. Well, the thing with the Eagles, like Wes just mentioned, I mean, we didn't even talk about their. Their tackle, Lane Johnson just retired.
[00:19:03] Speaker A: Just retired.
[00:19:04] Speaker C: They just.
[00:19:05] Speaker A: Straight away they're traded.
[00:19:07] Speaker C: They're starting center about two hours ago.
You know, Saquon's out. Tank Bigsby, their other backup running back, just went to ir.
So Will Shipley, you know, maybe he can come back from his old Clemson days and step up and put up some good numbers here. This. The offense has been bad. Devonte Smith's likely not going to play. Dallas Goddard probably still out as well. Mikhail Lemon, he finally did a little something. They got him involved in the game.
Jacksonville coming off that impressive win against Cincinnati.
Yeah, I mean, if I was picking a side Here I would go with the Jags. I mean they're traditionally. We know they always play at least one game every year in London. I call London their second home because they're always there playing at least one or two games every year for like the last decade, it seems like.
And Philly, I mean, look, are they throwing in the towel, trading away some of these guys and trying to stock up draft picks and whatnot? Sirianni, I mentioned early in the year I thought he was going to be hot seat candidate. Coach Rome. Not a lot to like what Philadelphia is going on.
You know, Fangio on defense. The problem with them is they just don't have any pass rushes. They don't get after the quarterback. They get no sacks.
Tough spot. Tough spot for the Eagles here.
[00:20:20] Speaker B: Yeah, I will say too before we move on to the next game, MVP candidate. You get Trevor Lawrence a plus a thousand right now.
Pretty good value there. You got Brock Purdy at plus 410. Lamar plus 750. Josh Allen plus 250.
Obviously Josh is probably the front runner. Mahomes plus 600. Burrow plus 1500. The Trevor Lawrence man, they keep winning games and he keeps looking good. Don't sleep on Trevor Lawrence for mvp.
[00:20:49] Speaker A: I'm sleeping.
[00:20:51] Speaker C: Rome hates the Jags. Cohen and Trevor Lawrence, I don't hate it.
[00:20:55] Speaker A: It's just Aaron's so up on them so much, it's disgusting. But his packets are not doing so well. All right.
[00:21:03] Speaker B: Yeah, we, we got Chicago Green Bay here. Speaking of the Packers, Bears 3 and 1. Packers 2 and 2. Bears are 3 and 1 against the spread this year. If you want to know how you can tell who you know what a head. Good NFL head football coaches such as Ben Johnson. He's won three games this year. All three of their wins has been with three different starting quarterbacks. That, my friends, is the mark of a good NFI coach for sure.
Obviously Chicago off the. The win over the Jets. The jets really were never in that game that was really dominated by Chicago.
You know, obviously the, the case keenum game against the Eagles the week before.
I obviously Caleb Williams not going to be back for maybe a couple more weeks.
Green Bay, man, they have not looked good. They. They've got to be the worst 2 and 2 team in the NFL for my money. Just. It hasn't looked good at all. They barely beat the Buccaneers with no Baker Mayfield. They barely beat the New York Jets.
Yeah, I mean we're getting Chicago here. I mean this is essentially a pick them. Am I reading that right here? Hold on Let me go back. This is well, no bearish. Minus two and a half. So yeah, I would probably take Chicago here. I just can't. I have no faith in the packers right now. They need Micah Parsons back is what they need.
[00:22:15] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean packers got a lot to holes. You can't run the ball defensively. They held Tampa to 14, but we kind of touched on it. Tampa hasn't done anything.
Ben Johnson last week that game they got 34 first downs to nine. They ran 89 plays at 32. They only won by 11 but it seems like a game that they should have won by at least double that.
Green Bay look too much, too much play on the plate for Jordan. Love all they. They're really one dimensional. I like Watson, I like golden. What they can do there. The Bears secondary has gotten better from week one to week four and you're getting only two and a half. I think it's a favorable number. I'm going to jump on Chicago here too. I mean look Ben Johnson, when he got there to the Bears his goal was to always beat Matt LaFleur and the packers and stick it to him. And that's. They. They don't hold back on how much they dislike that organization and that team up there.
And you know, like you mentioned Rome, Green Bay's. Green Bay's bleeding. And what do you do to somebody that's bleeding? You just. You take their heart out. I think, I think Chicago goes into Lambeau Field and gets a win here.
[00:23:17] Speaker B: Yeah. Moving on to Raiders Patriots. So Raider. I mean don't sleep on these Raiders. They're three and one and they very, you know, they were close and you know, right there with the Chiefs they had an opportunity to win that game or at least tie the game at the, you know, with a field goal if Cousins did not throw that interception.
But I will say this, the Raider games have been pretty high scoring. If you go back to my, you know, they put up 27 against Miami, put up 26 against the Chargers, 35 against the Saints, 27 against the Chiefs. Their offense is moving the ball quite well. The raiders are also 4 and oh against the number. They've covered every single game this year obviously because they stayed within the number against the Chiefs.
Catching three and a half with the Raiders here the Aaron, this is very interesting because I want to jump all over the Raiders, but I feel like it's almost a trap line. Like I, I kind of feel like this is the letdown spot.
Like even though they lost to the Chiefs, that wasn't A letdown because they gave it their all. They threw the kitchen sink at the Chiefs. They tried to win that game. They came very close to winning that game. But if there was ever a time for a letdown, like oh my God, we're kicking ass. We almost just beat the Chiefs. We're three and one. Like I feel like cross country trip. I feel like this could be the letdown and maybe New England wins this by four or seven.
[00:24:31] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean I looked at this line. I feel the same. I mean look, I've been impressed with what the Raiders did. You know, Patriots weren't looking very good. I think me and Wes last week released the Patriots as a premium play. Getting seven against Buffalo and they won that game outright.
I always tend to fade. Teams traveling west to east that 10:00am kickoff our time, Pacific Time versus 1:00', clock, they just don't really fare well. I mean a lot of teams have not done good so far in the time zone like that Patriots, I mean look, the people are going to be on them as well. The public I think too because look, they just beat, they beat Buffalo. They're going home. Chance to get the 3 and 2. But the Raiders are 40 against the spread. So I think this week from we touched on it before. There's a lot of teams that are 40 against the number and a lot of teams that are 0 and 4. I think we're going to get some reverse flip back on that.
I agree. I think the Patriots find a way to cover here. Defensively they're really, really good. It's probably the best defense that the Raiders have played. Chiefs defense is okay, but for the Patriots have been able to do against Seattle in week one, they shut down Pittsburgh and then Josh Allen really, really struggled to move the ball against them consistently.
It seems like a letdown spot for the Raiders where maybe Cousins and they just don't have it. And they're down 213 at the half and make it a respectable game and lose by 7 to 10. But I'll go Patriots.
[00:25:47] Speaker B: Yeah, keep an eye on Mendoza. Everybody thinks he's not going to play this year because Cousins is doing so well. Kirk Cousins is always one pinky nail away from being hurt now for the year. So I, I don't expect her cousins to last the whole season. There's no way this dude plays the whole year. There's no way we're gonna see Mendoza. But it won't be because Cousins is not playing well. It'll be because he gets hurt sooner or later. So Just keep an eye on that because it's gonna happen sooner or later.
[00:26:11] Speaker A: All right, what's next?
[00:26:12] Speaker B: So we got next. We got.
Yeah, we got Cincinnati, we got Miami, huh? Cincinnati going down to South Florida got the Bengals laying six and a half total of 43.
Bengals two and two. You know, that defense was really, really good the first two weeks. All of a sudden the last two weeks it hasn't looked all that great.
Miami O&4. They definitely looks like the worst team in all of football.
This is a really tough game for me to call too. I mean we're getting six and a half year with Miami, but since he's kind of desperate right now, man, you know, last week losing to the Jags, I actually that was one of my highest rated plays last week. I thought Cincinnati was going to come out, lay the hammer down. Maybe Jacksonville have a letdown, but they didn't. They won that game. Credit to Jacksonville after, you know, they lost the Steelers the week before that. Miami, you know, they would not have covered against the Vikings if it weren't for Hawkinson, you know, taking a knee at the one.
So even though they covered last week, you don't take too much, you know, you don't give them too much credit because they probably should not have covered that game, by the way, if you had T.J. hawkinson and fantasy. I'm sorry about that, but I don't know, man. I kind of don't have an opinion on this game. What do you think, Aaron?
[00:27:24] Speaker C: Yeah, it's a high number given that Higgins, Chase, both questionable. Chase is in concussion protocol.
Higgins has what a abductor kind of injury. I think he'll probably play Miami. Look, Miami's played tough. I mean, look, they're, they're sloppy as hell, but they do compete, they play hard. I mean, like Wes said, look, they fortunate to cover last week. They were covering for most of the game against the Chiefs before Kelsey got a touchdown the week before of like less than two minutes for the Kansas City to get that cover.
They sucked. When they're out here on the west coast against the Raiders and Niners, they, they were terrible. But since they've been, you know, in the Midwest and back in south beach, they've been a lot better. Cincinnati's desperate. They got to get a win here, right? They can't afford to lose three straight games. It's a winnable game for them. They should be focused coming out. But seven, the number seems high. I mean I'm looking at, even at the total at 42 and a half. That might be a good spot for the over. I mean, Cincinnati's defense has struggled a bit here, so, I mean, I think we could be looking at, you know, a 28, you know, 2021 type game. So I. I would probably play the over 42 and a half now that I'm actually looking at that total.
[00:28:33] Speaker B: Yeah, it does seem a little bit low. I agree.
Well, this game. I know we've all been waiting for this game. This is probably the best game of the entire season.
It's the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets. Right. And I say that, you know, obviously joking, but the Browns are three and one. Man, they. They've actually been an exciting football team. They look really good on Thursday Night Football against the Steelers.
The jets, they're 1 and 3. But the jets have been in every single game. I know that the Bears on paper dominated them last week, but I mean, credit to the jets, they've actually had a chance in every single game. It's been a lot closer than the scores indicated.
You know, two and a half points here. Cleveland catching two and a half against the Jets. I mean, what are the jets doing land points to anybody right now? Even though I know all these games are close, but I don't really think that the jets should be favored here.
Cleveland has also, I will say, they played in.
Well, let's see, there are three and one to the over. Yeah, the three and one to the over.
That game in Pittsburgh. I actually gave out the under 38 and a half last week on Thursday, because we did the show on Thursday last week. That game went. It was 51 points. That game went way over the total.
[00:29:41] Speaker A: Way over.
[00:29:42] Speaker B: And.
But the Browns can put up points. Man, that Boston kid, he can catch the ball. He's a rookie. He's probably looking at Rookie of the year right now.
I don't know about Rookie of the Year. We'll see what happens. But, I mean, he's been very, very impressive. Watson's been playing very well. Also.
Me, you're giving me a two and a half with the Browns. I don't know, maybe I'd buy it up to three and go, Cleveland here.
I don't think I could take the jets and lay two and a half of the Jets.
[00:30:10] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean, like the Browns big win on Thursday night. The jets last week did not look good, but they could have easily beaten the packers there in week one two. They had Detroit. That game was tied late. Detroit got a touchdown.
Browns getting points on the road seems enticing, but I mean, Are we waiting for the Browns to kind of be the Browns, right. And just kind of lay an egg in the jets defensively? I mean, they got kind of torched last week. I expect them to be a lot better. Boston has been great. You got Casey consumption. The run game is good. Cleveland did get banged up a little bit on the defensive line for the Jets. Look, they got to get back to running the ball play action and let Geno Smith, when Geno Smith's under center doing play action, he's got weapons on the outside. They got a tight end, Sadiq. I don't know if he played last week or not. Maybe he's back this week.
It just seems like a trap line to me. Right. You're giving the Browns, who are playing so well and you're almost getting two and a half, three points and you got the jets that haven't performed up to really the standard we expect.
It just seems like a trap game and stay away game for me. But if I was to get a take a side, you know, it might be one of those things where you take the jets money line and the Browns by the hook and get them at three points and hope for a 12 point finish for the either way.
[00:31:23] Speaker B: Moving on to Minnesota, New Orleans, this very interesting game, obviously New Orleans, they just got blown out at home on Monday Night Football by the Falcons. That was not a good look. But I still like Tyler Shug, man. I like him a lot. Obviously Kellen Moore is a very good offensive mind and the Saints have been playing very good offensive football before that game against Minnesota. I mean they beat, obviously they beat the Ravens.
They, they lost to the Raiders in a very high scoring game. They barely lost to the Lions. If you remember on week one by the two point conversion. They didn't convert.
But these Saints games have been going over me. Well, actually they're, they're only two and two. I shouldn't say that because. But the last two games have gone well over the total with the Raider playing the Raiders and then playing the Falcons and they could put up a lot of points, man, they really can. So I don't know, it's tough taking it over with them and I know it's a low total, you know, sitting at 41 and a half, 42 and a half depending on what book book you're looking at. But I don't know if I have a lot of faith in Kyler Murray long term there in Minnesota. Obviously they only put up 15, should have been 22 against Minnesota, but they only put up 15.
It just seems like they're stagnant offensively at some times. And I don't know, I probably lean to the over because I think Minnesota probably will play better offensively in this game. And I probably lean New Orleans, man, off that bad loss against the Falcons. I kind of think they bounce back here and maybe this is when the Vikings finally exhale. They're 4.0and they have a letdown.
[00:32:48] Speaker C: I'm, I'm gonna jump on that Viking ship and agree. I, I like the Saints here. Look, they got embarrassed. It was a big, big what, 20 year anniversary with Katrina.
[00:32:57] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:32:57] Speaker C: And Bijan and those guys are just, they ran the ball well. Like Minnesota offensively doesn't scare you. I mean, I still don't know if Justin Jefferson's gonna play. We'll have to see what the practice report. Look, later in the week since we are recording on Wednesday.
Have a better idea come Friday afternoon once all the final reports are out. But Minnesota scored one offensive touchdown the last three weeks and New Orleans, look, New Orleans is pinning up points. They kind of have to because their defense isn't great.
So look, I think Minnesota offensively should be better this week because it is the Saints defense. Tyler Schuck. I agree. I mean, Wes, you pointed out Chris Olave maybe, you know, lead the league in receiving guards two weeks ago. It's a good side prop bet that has some juice and legs to it. I like the Saints to win and I like the over. So that's a little good two team parlay in this game.
[00:33:42] Speaker B: Moving on to a game in which I have no idea whatsoever is going to happen. We got the Colts and the Steelers here. This game is in Pittsburgh.
Both teams are two.
Colts are three, one against the number they come back from London, remember that. So, you know, you don't know if they're gonna have any jet lag or whatnot. You know, I'd be interesting, interested to find out whether they flew straight to Pittsburgh or if they, they probably went home to Indy because Pittsburgh's not even that far from Indy anyway. So they probably went to the practice facility probably. But you know, yeah, they beat up the commanders pretty good, 30 to 13.
The Texans, they won the week before that as well. Steelers.
You know, Aaron Rodgers, I don't know, man. Him and McCarthy getting into it on the sidelines was kind of funny last week.
But, you know, they lost the Browns. They lost the Browns on Thursday. But they have had time to prepare. I mean, they're coming off 10 days of preparation, whereas the Colts Were in England last week and now they're flying all the way back. So maybe that's advantage Pittsburgh here.
I really don't have an opinion. If I gone to my head, I'd probably take the Steelers minus two and a half, but it's as a tough call.
[00:34:46] Speaker A: What's funny, in years past under Tomlin, when they had more time to prepare, they actually came out flat. It was quite the opposite. But at least the, the ball is running. They got Jalen Warren. He's. He's a. He's been a nice surprise. The tight ends have been really great. The only one that's not really catching anything is Metcalf. You know, big 300 pounds of muscle just streaming down the field and not doing anything.
I like the Steelers in that one.
[00:35:13] Speaker C: Yeah, it's a real interesting game. Like Metcalf, I think he. I think he stepped up a little bit with five catches, 94 yards this last game. Yeah, but yeah, the jet lag. Right. You got a team coming back. Nice win coming back from London versus a team that's had 10 days to prepare off a tough Thursday night loss in which the game was tied. The Browns went down late and got the game winner there.
Two and a half is an interesting number.
I mean, I, I do like the Colts. I like everything they're doing. You got Pittman Jr. Here trying maybe a little revenge factor going against his old team after he got traded in the off season.
It feels like a game Pittsburgh is going to win. I mean, this was a game last year that kind of when the Colts went downhill. Remember, they were like 7 and 1, 8 and 1. They lost this game at Pittsburgh and then ended up losing seven straight following that. It's a big game, tough way to call, but yeah, I agree. If I had to take a side right now, slight lean towards Pittsburgh, but I wouldn't be surprised if Indy went in there and just kept rolling. They could have easily beaten Kansas City in week two, lost in overtime. They've been the better, more consistent team. But the travel, the jet lag and the preparation time for Pittsburgh and being at home makes me kind of lean inside with them right now.
[00:36:21] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, I agree.
We get a division match up here, Giants and Commanders. We get that old vaunted quarterback matchup. Jameis Winston against Ethan Kaliak, Manis assuming Mariota still out, which I think he is going to be out for a little while.
[00:36:37] Speaker C: Mariota is out. Is Daniels going to play? I know that you don't try to get him.
[00:36:42] Speaker B: I did. Yeah, I did hear on some podcasts that maybe he'd give it a go, but it's, you know, he's either doubtful or questionable. We'll see what happens there. But man, it was impressive with the Giants that went in that game. Obviously the score, you can't take too much stock on the score, the 36 to 24 because there was the pick six at the end of the game.
So you take that out, the Giants still win, but, you know, by less than seven points.
But their defense is really good. You got John Harbaugh, fantastic head coach. He's always going to come in with a great defensive game plan, especially if he's going up against the third string quarterback.
And yeah, I'm checking the injury report right now. It doesn't say anything about Jayden Daniels. And again we shoot this on Wednesday, so we don't have all the information yet.
But I probably lean Giant. Even if Jane Daniels plays, I still might lean Giants in the spot. I mean, you're catching four and a half even with Jaden Daniels. I, you know, Jamis, he's always good for an interception or two, but he's always good for a couple good plays too. He had a couple good throws for touchdowns last week. So I, yeah, give me the points with the Giants here. Four and a half.
[00:37:44] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean, if you're going to give the Giants plus four and a half, I think you got to go with them. Look, Harbaugh's been a big difference there. They haven't really had a competent head coach in what, the last 10, 12 seasons. We've seen what that organization of a good coach can do.
Jameis, nice game last time out and Washington just the same. A lot of injuries, I mean, running their offensive lines banged up. You know, their wide receivers are banged up. Quarterbacks are all banged up right now.
If anything, it's a field goal or less game here. So if you're gonna get four and a half, I think you have to cyber the Giants.
[00:38:15] Speaker B: Yeah, you know, on second thought, I'm, I'm actually looking at the lines right now. There's one book with a four and a half, but most of them are three and a half. But I, to be honest, I would still probably take the Giants at three and a half here.
[00:38:27] Speaker C: I agree. Unless it goes below three, then that'd probably make me start reconsidering.
[00:38:31] Speaker B: Yeah, we have one more crappy game here on the slate. We have the Texans and the Titans. You know what happened to the Houston Texans, man, their defense is not nearly as good as advertised. They can't do. I mean they scored 30 points last week, but that was against the Cowboys defense. But they just have issues offensively. They have issues defensively. They can't close out games. Very disappointed because I was very high on them coming into the. I, I picked them to go to the super bowl on a couple shows. This team ain't going to the Super Bowl. I got news for you.
Yeah, they gave up 34 against the Cowboys. They lost the Colts, they lost the Bengals.
[00:39:05] Speaker C: They lost.
[00:39:06] Speaker B: They lost to the Bills. I mean those are three pretty good football teams right there. Well, four if you include the Cowboys.
But just, I mean they got to get a win sooner or later. Obviously they're favored here. I'm seeing seven and a half. I want to check the actual. I want to check Circa's line though.
Yeah, so Circa has actually seven and a half. Circa has so.
I don't know man. That's a lot of points for the Titans. I'm not a big Cam Ward fan at all, but you know These teams, these two teams are combined for 08. The Texans. Aaron. They're 0 and 4 and they're also 04 against the spread. This team hasn't won and they haven't covered. So how do we back them now? It's seven and a half. How do we do it? I can't do it.
[00:39:49] Speaker C: You can't, Wes, but I will, I, I will back the Texans. Look, they got it. They got to win and cover a game some point. Tennessee got the old back door last week against Baltimore. A lot of that had to do with Lamar getting hurt at halftime and not playing or they probably would have lost by 20.
Houston, you mentioned the defense has been disappointing. Look, they've been up every game except week two against Cincinnati. And the last drive of every game they've lost, their defense has let them down. Josh Allen let a comeback drive. The last drive. Dak. This last game and the week before that, Indianapolis kicked the game winning field goal. So I feel like they're close. And now they get Cam Warden in an offense that I just don't think can do anything against him. They're licking their chops. Texans find a way to win. Remember Texans last year were 03, they played Tennessee. Week four, beat them 26 0. I don't think they're going to win 260 here on the road, but they'll win and cover. I like Houston.
[00:40:39] Speaker B: Let me ask you something, Aaron. If Tennessee gets a top three draft pick next year, which they probably will, are you going quarterback again?
[00:40:50] Speaker C: It's interesting. I mean, look, I like camp more coming out of college. He's not been weld right now, but he needs weapons.
[00:40:57] Speaker A: Right.
[00:40:58] Speaker C: He's got Tate. If you get number three, does that mean you get Smith out of Ohio State?
Yeah, maybe. Maybe you ride one more year reward.
[00:41:05] Speaker B: Well, I mean, you got to pay him anyway. Maybe you see what you get from him. I understand that. There's just.
[00:41:10] Speaker C: It's only going to be his third year. So he really got him on the cheap still for two years. You don't have to pay him till that fifth year. Right. Then it goes to 20, 30 million, but.
[00:41:17] Speaker B: Right.
[00:41:17] Speaker C: Yeah.
[00:41:18] Speaker B: There's a lot of talk know Peyton Manning went to Tennessee as far as college goes. And, and there's a lot of talk about, you know, Arch maybe going to the Titans. But first of all, why would you want to go to the Titans if you're Arch Manning? We're talking about a family that pulled the yanked Eli Manning out of the Chargers organization to make him go to the Giants.
Plus, Arch might even stay in college another year, too.
[00:41:38] Speaker C: So I think Arch is going to stay in college. I guess the good thing the Titans do have. They do have a new stadium coming in next year, 28, 29, whatever. It is supposed to be a state of the art, whatever, $2.3 billion stadium.
And look, you know, we'll see. But Robert Sala experiment has not been very good right now to start the things in Tennessee.
[00:42:00] Speaker B: Yeah. By the way, the. The next four Super Bowls are this year at SoFi. Atlanta in 2028, Vegas 2029, and Nashville, Tennessee. That new stadium already has a Super bowl set for its. Or its. I think it'll be two years old by then.
[00:42:16] Speaker C: So that's why you build Nashville, so you can host the Super Bowl.
[00:42:19] Speaker B: Yeah, Nashville's gonna start getting the Super Bowl a lot because that's going to be like a hot event. It's a great town to go to and partying and whatnot.
[00:42:25] Speaker A: So.
[00:42:26] Speaker B: All right, moving on to the later games, we've got the Chargers and Chargers hosting the Broncos here. This line opened at. I'm just going to use circus lines because I have them right here. So looking at three and a half. It opened at three and a half. It's still at three and a half here. Denver favorite by three and a half. Obviously the Chargers, can they ever win a game? Yes, they will win some games this year. I don't know if it'll be this week, but, you know, three and a half points. I'm kind of leaning with the Chargers here. I mean, they gotta play better, man. Jim Harbaugh's got some pride. He's got to get that defense going at some point.
Maybe the Broncos. I mean, I know you just lost the 49ers, so you're going to want to bounce back from that. I understand that Rams game, they probably should have lost if, you know, they had called that interception, which they didn't. That was incorrectly called.
I can't. I can't figure out Denver this year. I don't. I don't know whether they're a good football team or a mediocre football team. But if you're giving me three and a half, I think I'm gonna take the Chargers. It's a little scary, but I think I'm taking the Chargers.
[00:43:26] Speaker A: I've been down the Broncos this year and Aaron's been hammering the other way. So be careful, sniper.
[00:43:33] Speaker C: What do you mean hammering the other way? Rome? I'm. I think I'm 3 and 1 picking Broncos against the spread games this this season. And I'm going to agree. I'm going to go Chargers here.
Look, Patrick Surtan is going to be out. He's one of the big defensive guys there. I mean, not like the Chargers right now have a lot of offensive weapons. They haven't done a lot there.
But look, Denver offensively looks like a mess. Davis Webb is not. The chemistry. Calling plays hasn't been great. And if this is a game they lose, we mentioned Sean Payton could take over offensive coordinator duties again calling the plays.
Three and a half divisional game on the road. Chargers need to win.
I'll take the hook and the points. Give me the Chargers here.
[00:44:15] Speaker B: You know what's interesting? We just talked about the Texans being 04 and 04 against the spread and thus I couldn't back the Texans.
But I just realized the Chargers are 0 and 4 and they are 04 against the spread and yet I'm backing the Chargers. But it was funny, that Buffalo game. I think I talked about this last week. I don't know how they didn't cover because they the Bills. It was seven and a half. The turnover margin was plus four in the Chargers favor and they lost by eight points. That's just criminal if you had the Chargers right there. But yeah, I'd still lean Chargers in this situation.
Moving on to the next game, we have the 49ers and the Seahawks. Talk about a banger. This is the banger of the week right here. 4 and 1, San Francisco 3 1, Seattle. Aaron is San Francisco, the best team in the NFL.
[00:45:04] Speaker C: They've been the most consistent, playing the best coming in.
[00:45:07] Speaker B: Yeah. Three and one against the spread as well. Obviously they handled that Australia situation very well. They got that one against the Rams, took care of the Dolphins, hung on against the Cardinals and beat the Broncos.
But Seattle, man, that defense is just really, really good. I think this is going to be. Obviously, the Broncos defense is one of the top defenses in the league. So Brock Purdy's coming off facing a very good defense.
But Seattle up there, you know, the Pacific, North, Northwest, it's really hard to play up in that environment.
Mike Evans and Mike Evans did play last week, didn't he? I think he did. I think he's gonna be playing here.
[00:45:42] Speaker C: He did. I don't know if he did too much. They didn't do a lot offensively, but Roman was at that game.
[00:45:48] Speaker B: Oh, nice.
[00:45:50] Speaker A: I was, yeah. Yeah. I believe he had a couple catches. Got some love from the crowd, but they're, they are pretty careful with him.
[00:45:57] Speaker B: Yeah. If you look back the head to head, so last year, Obviously it was 416 in the playoffs. Seattle just beat the bricks off them in the playoffs. Last season they beat him 133 the last game of the regular season. Last year, San Fran won in September, I guess the Seahawks 1713. In fact, I think that was week one. Yeah, it was. It was week one last year they beat the Seahawks and then I think the Seahawks went on to win a bunch of games in a row, if I remember correctly. But man, this is a tough game to call. Aaron, you know, I'd probably look at the under, to be honest with you, just because I think both defenses are going to kind of ball out here. I think Seattle is really going to bring their defensive aame. We're looking at 45 and a half at actually circus 46 and a half. DraftKings and Vandal have 45 and a half and the total's going down too.
So it looks like there's some sharp money on the under.
I probably lean on the under in this game, honestly.
[00:46:52] Speaker C: Yeah. Looking at that total 46, I would agree on the under. Look, the Niners, they look great on offense the first three games. I mean, last week Denver was a really good defense and the 49ers have a ton, a ton of injuries, really. On offense like we see every week, it seems like they lose somebody. I mean, Mike Evans did play, but he's playing with a, you know, bruised ribs, whatever he's got going on. We're in a compression on Those Seattle at home, real tough. Tough place to go in and play. The home of the 12th man we know defensively they could get after you. I mean look they got after the Chargers there in that first half. Chargers made a bit of a comeback.
Sam Darnold, that was his what, second start. Seattle.
I would lean towards Seattle getting a win here. Three points is probably what the number should be. You know we talked about it, Wes. Look, the Niners have been the most consistent best team in the league so far.
But to go up there and beat Seattle like you, you have to be on your A game.
So I like Seattle here and the under look, 46 does seem a little high. I wouldn't be surprised if we get 45 as the final close number.
[00:47:57] Speaker B: Yeah, it'll be interesting to see see how Kittle does as well. Yeah, Brock Purdy. Like I said I mentioned it earlier, it's +410 right now to win the MVP of the NFL. Mr. Irrelevant playing quite well this season.
Taking a look at Super Bowl. So the Rams, rams are still plus 650 to win it all. Bills right behind them plus 750. Ravens plus 850. Seahawks plus 900.
Chiefs plus 950. Niners plus 950.
Who else we got here? Let me go. Jags plus 12. Yeah, so it kind of drops off after that. So your Niners, Chiefs, Seahawks, Ravens, Bills and Rams are all the the betting favorites here to win the Super Bowl.
I don't know, man. It's a long season. I'm kind of rooting for the Bills, to be honest with you. It'd be great to see the city of Buffalo finally cash in and win it all. I'm a big Josh Allen fan. I really do like him a lot.
All right, moving on to the Lions and the Cardinals here kind of seems like a boring game, but you know what, you know what Mark Twain said, Nothing in life is sure but death and taxes and the over when the Detroit Lions play. And that's what I think I'm going to be taking here. Over 54, granted. Very, very high total 54 points. But the Lions can't stop anybody. The Lions can score a ton of points and the Lions can't stop anybody. The Cardinals, remember the Cardinals put up what they put up 30 against the Niners. They put up 24 against the Giants.
They put up 26 when they beat the Chargers. Jacoby Versecc can throw the football, man. He really can. I mean, don't sleep on this Cardinals offense. They could put up points and they will Put up points against the Detroit Lions. Defense is not very good at all. Looking at Detroit's games last week, if you know the Sunday Night Football game that went over, I bet the over. I released the over. It was just a no brainer. It's 52 and a half and it finished to what, 58 points.
Arguably it should have went over a little bit more than that because, you know, Dan Campbell made a bunch of idiocy. Dan Campbell went for it on 4th and 20 with eight minutes left down two touchdowns. Aaron, he went for it on 4th and 1. I'm not even saying 4th and 15. It was 4th and 10. They had a false start. So it's 4th and 15. I'm like, they can't go for it. They gotta kick a field goal because they were in field goal range. Ball start again, it's 4th and 20. I'm like, dude, you got to kick the field goal. You're not going to make a freaking 4th and 20 get it within 11 points.
He went for it on 4th and 20 and of course they didn't get it. Just idiotic, man. Dan Campbell, I like the guy. I like his energy. He's brought, you know, a lot of passion and enthusiasm to the city of Detroit. He's made Detroit Lions football relevant again. I don't agree with his decision making. It's just really, it's very irritating to me. But I love the yogurt. I think Arizona scores. I think Detroit scores. I'm on Ross St. Brown, you can't stop him. Jared Goff, they're gonna put a point. It's give me the over.
[00:50:39] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean, this has all the recipes of a shootout down there in Arizona. Look, Detroit, they're bad, they're bad on defense. What are they giving up? Almost over 30 points a game. I think their opponents are scoring against them.
I mean, Bryce Young looked great against them. And there's plenty of weapons from Arizona to move the ball here. And it's not like these teams, you know, rely on 8, play 10, play 12, play drives like they hit home runs after home runs. There's big home run players on both sides. So the over definitely 54 and a half is in play here. I mean, we got controlled environments of weather will not be an issue.
And like Detroit, Dan Campbell. I agree with what you said, Wes. I mean this guy, when he got to Detroit, always going for it on fourth down seemed great. Maybe some of those decisions cost him in the NFC championship game a few years back. But when you got an opportunity to take points In a close game, you got to take them.
I think we're going to have a lot, a lot of points here. Fantasy players will be happy with the. The players they have in this game because they also perform pretty well.
[00:51:40] Speaker B: 100% agree. We move on to Sunday Night Football. The Ravens quarter a Falcons. Do you guys realize this is the third straight week the Falcons are on prime time? And let me tell you something, the Atlanta Falcons could have picked no better time to start balling out than they did. It was the first prime time.
Came back 100, and all of a sudden it's like, whoa, we all want to watch Falcon games, keep them on prime time every. On. Every Thursday, Sunday and Monday.
But they played on Monday. So a little bit of a short week here to host the Ravens.
Ravens are obviously off. That Titans victory. That was a closer game than most thought. Lamar in the boot. Any you guys have any word on Lamar and his foot? Because I don't.
[00:52:18] Speaker C: Lamar's not going to play as. From what I'm.
[00:52:19] Speaker A: I'm hearing, he might be out a couple weeks, actually.
[00:52:23] Speaker B: Who's. Who's their backup again? Is it still
[00:52:27] Speaker C: Hunley?
[00:52:28] Speaker B: Still.
[00:52:29] Speaker A: Is it still he balls out?
[00:52:31] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, yeah, he can play some football. I mean, there's a reason he's a backup in the league, but he's definitely a quality backup.
But Atlanta scoring points, man, I mean, they're putting up a ton of points. They put up a ton of points here against the Saints. They score the week before that. They scored 35 against the. Yeah, 45 against the Saints, 35 against the Packers.
And you know, that's coming off Cooper rush putting up three and 13 the two prior weeks.
But, yeah, we're looking at falcons minus three and a half. So this has got to be the situation where everyone's going to pound the Falcons, right, Aaron? Like, oh, did you see them? They scored 35. They scored 45. They're balling out the Ravens with their backup quarterback. And so the Falcons are going to blow out the Ravens, right? As Lee Corso used to say, not so fast, my friends.
I'd probably take a look. This is ugly. We talked about the plug your nose and bet it. And big girls need 112 bets last week. This is one of those where you plug. You go to the window, you plug your nose, and you're like, give me the Ravens and the points.
It's ugly, but I'm going to do it just because, you know, everyone else is on the Falcons and I don't want to be on that Side
[00:53:41] Speaker C: agree. I. Not only do I like Ravens getting the points, I think the Ravens are going to win this game outright.
They're like, their defense is pretty good.
They've gotten better here over the last couple games. Jesse Mentor, kind of the, you know, the defensive guru. That's why he got brought in here, so that that unit seems to be playing better. And now Hundley with a week to prepare. I mean, look, we've seen some quality backups come in during the middle of the games, not look so great. We gotta remember, these guys aren't playing with the first guys. They're not taking reps. They get 5% of the reps in practice. They're literally just sitting there watching film.
Now he's getting reps for the first team. And like Wes said, look, Atlanta's looked like gangbusters these last two weeks, and everybody's gonna be licking their chops. No, Lamar. Oh, wow. Atlanta's gonna beat him by 14, 17.
Not so fast, my friend is correct. I like the Ravens to cover. I like the Ravens. That went out right.
[00:54:26] Speaker B: There you go.
[00:54:27] Speaker A: Real quick, regarding the Huntley thing.
[00:54:29] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:54:29] Speaker A: It's like being at a party. You know, you got your girlfriend, she has her hot girlfriends around. You get drunk, you're in a dark room, things happen, the lights come on, you realize, oh, that's not your girlfriend. I wonder why it was a little more freakier. That's what Huntley is, you know, it's her girlfriend. That sound the same?
[00:54:45] Speaker C: Sounds like more like the.
[00:54:46] Speaker A: Just never know.
[00:54:47] Speaker C: You might even want to save that one.
[00:54:52] Speaker A: I was trying to go somewhere. You took us somewhere else.
Trying to cancel me. All right, moving on.
[00:54:57] Speaker B: I thought you were. I thought you were gonna. I. I thought you were gonna say, oh, I thought you were my girlfriend, Erica, not Eric.
That's a.
[00:55:08] Speaker C: That's a 49ers game. We're getting our games mixed up here.
[00:55:10] Speaker B: Yeah,
[00:55:13] Speaker A: yeah, the BJ was too good. Like, wait a minute.
[00:55:16] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah. All right, honey, I think you. Honey, I think you need to shave.
All right, we move to Monday Night Football. So other than the Niners and the Seahawks, this is going to be your game of the week. Buffalo la.
Man, I don't know what to do in this game. Three and a half points we're looking at. Actually, Here, hold on, let me look at circus lines.
So, yeah, we got 54 and a half and three rams favor by three here.
That is a high total. This is a prime time game.
I am, first of all going to say I love the under in this spot, and I know I'll be on an island. I know a lot of people are going to think it's going to be a shootout, high score game just because it's a game of the year type of situation.
These are spots I love the under, in which the whole public's going to be on the over.
Don't forget the Rams have a decent defense. You know, obviously they don't have Miles Garrett in there. I understand that, but you still have McDuffie on the outside. You saw Baron Donald coming into his zone on the offensive line.
The Rams gave up. You know, they held the Eagles to 20. I know the Eagles aren't lighting it up offensively. That game in Denver, that was kind of an anomaly to me. The Giants, they only mustered six points. Obviously, that's the game Jackson Dart got hurt in.
They did give up 27 in Australia to the Niners, but I smell an under in this game. You know, Buffalo, they're coming off the loss to the New England Patriots. The Patriots just put up 29 on them. So you know that they're going to be preaching defense. Hey, we just gave up 29 points. Our defense needs to be a lot better. Obviously. You know, the Bills locker room, I think one of their cornerbacks, I forget his name, but he was given.
He was given the Patriots all kind of bulletin board material for the next time they play later this season. If you guys saw that in Sports center or anything.
[00:57:01] Speaker C: Yeah, Gardner Johnson.
[00:57:03] Speaker B: Yeah.
[00:57:04] Speaker A: Talking a lot of shit.
[00:57:05] Speaker B: So. But yeah, but give me the under in this game. It's just a classic. It's going to be a classic public fade.
And I just think that's a spot where the defenses show up quite a lot more than the odds makers think they do.
[00:57:18] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean, looking at it and see, I'm seeing 54 and a half. I'm going to agree. This feels like a 27, 24 game. I mean, these teams are still going to score some points. But look, the Rams, defensively, I don't really count the game against the Niners. I mean, that was the jet lag. They literally just showed up, got off the plane, looked half asleep. But since then, the defense has been pretty good. And Buffalo, look, the last two weeks at home have struggled. Look, they put up big offensive numbers against Detroit, not a very good team. And then Houston at week one wasn't very good on defense either.
Now this is probably, you know, Chargers defense. Okay. Patriots defense, better. Now we're going against another average to good defense in the Rams. And you're traveling Monday night game. You know a lot of eyes here so. Yeah, I agree. And the Rams offensively Puka still trying to get in the groove of things as well.
Stafford not looking like the MVP for me was before Buffalo. New defensive coordinator kind of worries me there. I'm more worried about Buffalo's defense keeping this under than I am the Rams because they just have the coaching staff and the players that have been there for a while in McDuffie and those guys on the outside to kind of shut down these guys here. So. Yeah, I, I agree. I mean I think everybody here is going to be looking for a shootout and we may get one. I mean a 38, 35 would be an exciting game, but I think it's more 27, 24. I agree. The under 54 and a half is a solid play.
[00:58:37] Speaker B: There you go Rome. There is your your week five wrap up.
[00:58:41] Speaker A: Love it. I love it.
Did you place any bets on F1 last week?
[00:58:47] Speaker B: You know, I didn't. I I told you guys I was going to be all in partying with you and then staying up all night and I wound up passing out in the middle of the Hawaii San Jose Steak King. Wow.
[00:58:58] Speaker A: Should take that to the grave.
[00:59:00] Speaker C: It's probably a good thing you did since that damn race was delayed two hours. Basically.
[00:59:04] Speaker B: Yeah, I was, I was all barking, no bite last week.
[00:59:07] Speaker C: 100% get that bump he was looking for. The guy didn't come through, man. He called up door dash and he didn't get the good stuff.
[00:59:15] Speaker A: That is amazing.
All right, so catch college football plays from Sniper. I believe he gave out two with a bonus third as well.
You can catch them at the Sniper picks on X on socials. You could buy some premium plays at the Wizards.
[00:59:33] Speaker B: Wizardsportspics.com right here.
[00:59:36] Speaker A: Those are sports picks.com WSP that's right. Aaron also provided one game and then yeah, nice little rundown of NFL action for week five.
Final comments plays Betting advice well,
[00:59:53] Speaker B: yeah, no, just looking forward to week five. Week two and week three were very, very strange betting wise and just, you know, big dogs covering and big dogs winning outright and everything. I kind of feel like week four was the week that everything kind of came back to the norm. I had a pretty good week five or I'm sorry, pretty good week four. I had a pretty good week four. Week two and three were the weird weeks.
But yeah, looking forward to this. And I actually how do you feel feel about the, the Europe games, guys? So a lot of people don't like it. I mean the people on the west coast particularly, because, you know, it starts too early for them, starts at 6:30am you're trying to sleep off the alcohol from the night before.
People on the east coast, they love it because they get their football at 9:30 in the morning.
I think the west coast is the best coast as far as NFL football and even college football. I mean we get our college football at 9:00am Boys, we got our NFL at 10:00am could you imagine if we had to wait until noon or one o' clock for football on the weekend and then you. And then the games go till three in the morning. I mean, I get that. That's kind of cool. I'd rather be in bed at 11 after all the games are over and be up at 9am watching college football on Saturday.
[01:00:56] Speaker C: I'm going to 100% agree, man. I mean look, you're up, you're up partying, go to bed between 11 and 12, wake up 8, 8:30, get a little walk in and then you got college football starting at 9:00'.
[01:01:06] Speaker A: Clock.
[01:01:06] Speaker C: So I agree. I mean I'd rather be here on the West Coast.
The time zone is great for us, but yeah, I mean as far as the game starting, it's. I'm never really up for those games. I catch the second half, I wake up about, you know, a quarter to eight, it's half time and then I watch the second half, which I did, you know, last game. Obviously Rome and I, we stayed up for the F1 race which didn't finish to like 3.30am our time since it had a two hour delay to even get that thing started.
[01:01:30] Speaker A: So my dog.
[01:01:33] Speaker C: Yeah, so I mean, and it's kind of weird because some of those games, I mean, we had the game in Brazil and It started at 1 o'.
[01:01:41] Speaker A: Clock.
[01:01:41] Speaker C: It was like perfect, right, because Brazil is only a four hour time zone difference. But you know, once you get 8, 9, 10 hours, you get strange kickoff times. And usually those games aren't great matchups to begin with. I mean Philly, Philly and Jacksonville before the start of the season look like it'd be great. But given where Philly's at right now, I, I don't really necessarily think we're missing much.
[01:02:00] Speaker B: I agree. ° I mean, get used to this because the NFL and going overseas and expansion teams and expansion games, by the way, we're going to have a 18 week schedule. We're going to have a 20 week schedule and an 18 game schedule in about two years for 1000% going to happen. It's going to be a 20 week schedule. Each team will get two buys instead of one buy during the season. I don't know if they're going going to start the NFL of NFL season earlier or if they're just gonna have the super bowl in the end of February. That's probably likely what's more going to happen I would think.
But get ready because 18 game schedule and 20 week season, it's, it's about two years away, but it's going to happen for sure.
Yeah, and, and yeah, and there's going to be games in Japan. There's going to be probably an Australia game every year now that these London, France, Spain, Ireland games are all going to continue. It's just going to be a global thing. They're going to push. It's, it's. We're just at the precipice of this,
[01:02:57] Speaker A: you know, as far as expansion wise, I wouldn't mind seeing a couple NFL teams in Mexico. That makes the most sense geographically and it'd be really nice to travel to. Like they would mesh in pretty well. You got one Mexico City, then another one like in northern Mexico kind of works out.
[01:03:13] Speaker B: I could see Toronto, I could see maybe Montreal. I could see some Canadians. So even though they have the cfl, I can definitely see the, the NFL going to Canada. Definitely Mexico. Just because the same time zones, right?
[01:03:23] Speaker A: Yeah.
[01:03:24] Speaker B: Kind of tough to put a team in London. I was talking to Tony Karpinski about this earlier because here's how you'd have to do it because you can't have them flying to Seattle or having Seattle fly all the way to Europe and then go back. You have to have them here in the States for three straight weeks.
Right.
Then they go over to London and then three teams go in a row to play over there. Right. And then it had to be three weeks here, three weeks there, three weeks here because you can't have them flying every other week back to the States. It's just not fair for them. So that's the only way it would make sense to have a team in Europe.
[01:03:57] Speaker C: I'm sure. Yeah, I'm sure the NFL, whatever they're, they've got logistic people working on stuff like that. But yeah, I mean, I agree. Rome, you can tell based on Australian game. Canada.
Yeah. I mean everyone that went to Australia is not looking to go back there there. Right. McVeigh said, Like I hope I'm like dead and buried in the ground before they ever asked me to go play a football game there again.
So in Kyle Shanahan it's just his whole thing on international games. He doesn't even want to hear the international word brought up at a press conference. He gets. He gets that cringe look on his face.
That might have been how he got in an accident in the first place. Before this season, they called and said, hey, guess what? You're going to Australia. Bam. He gets right into an accident.
[01:04:36] Speaker B: He did say he dropped his phone, so.
[01:04:38] Speaker C: Exactly. So, yeah, he got the call. He didn't like what he heard on the other end of the line.
[01:04:44] Speaker A: Yeah, it's funny because the 49ers, they slept there, they slept back. They said they had a relaxing trip back and forth. They've been looking pretty good. And I like how McBay has owned it, you know, like, oh, you know, sometimes people have a dumbass coach scheduling flights before the game internationally, so. Good guy, man. Good guy.
All right, that'll do it for the wise Guide, the sofa Wise guys. We record midweek every single week.
You can catch our other pod sources from the sofa, the beginning and the ending of each week as well.
Sniper Wes out of Las Vegas. Follow him on socials, the sniper picks. You can also catch him on the Wizards sports picks.com Aaron still waiting for his fucking X account.
But in the meantime, you can catch some of his college football picks on our source from the sofa channels.
Social channels. As I just got done wrapping up his college football picks to post up pretty soon. So excited about that.
Catch us next week. Good luck on those plays. We're out.
