Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Welcome everybody to the first episode of a new pod from the Source from the Sofa podcast.
This is the Sofa Wise Guys featuring Sniper Wes. You can follow him on X Instagram and other socials at the Sniper Picks. And we also have Aaron Toller, which he will have an X pretty soon dedicated to the Sources platform. New website coming out. This is a new show from the Source from the Sofa podcast. Be sure to catch that as we issue two to three episodes every single week throughout the NFL and college football season.
We'll cover college football and NFL and we'll see how it goes. I'm pretty sure these guys might want to get into some baseball later on, some NBA, some hockey as that thing starts going on. I know Wes likes gambling on women's basketball as well, but this is strictly a gambling podcast.
Wes is out in Las Vegas, so he has a pulse on what is going down on the Daily.
And Aaron, pretty reputable gambler himself, selling off really good picks and has a pretty impressive record. You can catch his NFL and college football picks. Additional picks on the sources from the Sofa podcast. But we'll get started with college football. Football.
Where do you guys want to go from here?
[00:01:28] Speaker B: Well, first of all, it was great to see you guys at contest. We got to hang out, hang at stadium, swim and chop it up a little bit. Hang out with a couple guys from the industry.
Always a great time. That's our second year. We're gonna have to make that an annual tradition.
And I'm sure you're. Yeah, Rome, you're probably gonna come out here for some F1 stuff soon.
[00:01:47] Speaker A: No, I believe so. Yeah, I'm working on that right now.
[00:01:51] Speaker B: All right, cool, Cool.
Well, yeah, we'll do a little college football here. Obviously, it's right around the corner. NFL starts tonight. We're shooting this on Wednesday, September 9th.
So obviously we have the Seahawks and Patriots kicking off tonight and we have a Thursday game in Australia. But let's talk some college football first. So I'm going to talk about a Friday night game here. This is Missouri and Kansas.
They call it the Border War.
[00:02:13] Speaker C: The.
[00:02:13] Speaker B: The Border War, guys. It's actually this series, believe it or not, it goes back to 1891 for you history buffs. They don't play each other that much anymore because, yeah, in 2012, both teams split, you know, conferences, they went to separate conferences, so they don't play every single year. But they did play last year. They're playing again this year and then it will resume back in 2030, I believe.
So, you know, Kansas and Missouri bordering states. A little bit of a rivalry there. But you know, Lance Leopold, he's the Kansas head coach and he's a pretty good head coach. If you remember last year, Missouri beat them 42 to 31. The Jayhawks, they squandered a 15 point lead in that game. So, you know, not a very good look. I know Leopold wasn't happy about that.
[00:02:55] Speaker A: Right.
[00:02:56] Speaker B: Regarding last week, the Jayhawks, they beat Long island and yes, Long island is a college, it's an FCS school and they beat them. Maybe they're pretty good. They beat him 51 to 6, 613 yards on offense, 246 through the air by Isaiah Marshall, the Jayhawks quarterback. I get that it's an FCS team. You don't really look into this too much because, you know, it's just they're not up to the same competition, but still very impressive. You know, it looks like their offense is gelling Missouri, they beat Arkansas, pine bluff last week, 54 14.
They're ranked 25 in the country. Austin Simmons, he's a transfer from Ole miss. He threw four TDs, 17 and 19 passing, 252 yards. He got subbed out because they were just blowing him out too big.
But Eli Drinkwitz. Yes, that is their head coach's name. Eli Drinkwitz.
[00:03:43] Speaker A: Love the name.
[00:03:44] Speaker B: Yeah, exactly. Great name for a head coach. Right. Probably likes to toss a few back.
But, you know, he was talking, he was talking off season about this particular game, saying they were going to be out for blood and they want to beat Kansas again.
But then he kind of downplayed that this week. But you know, as far as rivalries like that and stuff like Ohio State and Michigan, I, you know, I get that they're really big rivalries and everything, but once you get in the trenches and you're, you know, you have to block, you have to pass the ball, you have to run the ball, you have to execute. I think that, you know, the rivalry stuff kind of just goes out the window and it's all about your preparation and how you prepared. Right.
But Missouri does get Caden Green back. He's their best offensive lineman. This line opened at six and a half. As far as the side goes, it's down to five and a half. So Kansas is getting some love as it relates to the spread. But I kind of like the over in this game and I'll tell you why, because if Kansas is going to be an active dog in this game, which I think they will, I think there's going to be A lot of points here. You know, two pretty good quarterbacks. I was talking about Austin Simmons and Isaiah Marshall. Both these guys really, really good numbers last week. I think they both have success here again and I think there's going to be some points put up here on Friday night. So I'm going to go Missouri and Kansas, that number is sitting at an even 50 right now. I think we're going to see some points in the Midwest on Friday night.
[00:04:59] Speaker A: So you got it over 50 correct?
[00:05:01] Speaker B: Yes, sir.
[00:05:03] Speaker A: Nice. Really interesting. Aaron just finally shared his college football games to watch for week two, which we'll be covering on the preview show at source of the sofa. Missouri and Kansas is on the slate. He has it at fifty and a half with Missouri favored by five and a half. Aaron, do you want to give your two cents on that?
[00:05:21] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean I agree with Sniper there. I do like the over 50, 50 and a half as well. I believe both teams can score points. He mentioned last year was what, a 42, 31 shootout. Missouri was the home team. Kansas, you know, they got the new stadium, they opened it up, renovations last week with a big win this week Missouri comes in as mentioned, it is the border war. It's a big robbery when they used to be in the Big 12. Obviously like Wes mentioned, Missouri went to the sec back in 2012 and now the rivalry's picked up again. But yeah, Kansas traditionally not a great defensive team over the over this tenure as their head coach has had, but they can put up points.
Missouri the same too. The still one of their main running back who I believe was shot in the offseason. Don't know when he'll be back to returning to play. But yeah, they got the transfer quarterback in from Ole Miss.
Big guy, big arm, can run, especially if you get, you know, down there on the goal line, 4th and 1, 4th and 2, he can pick up those, you know, Tim Tebow, old power quarterback runs up the middle so that can keep some drives going.
And yeah, like Sniper mentioned, the line has come down. I kind of lean towards Kansas covering this game too. It's a little revenge factor for them.
I think it's a tight game, but I agree, I think it's a shootout. We're looking, I think at a 31, 28 type finish here.
So yeah, I agree. I like the over 50, 50 and a half.
[00:06:47] Speaker A: Nice. So that is Friday, this Friday for week two in college football. How about Saturday games? Aaron, I know you submitted quite a few games that you want to cover on the podcast. I just sent you a copy snipe if you want to check that out. It is on the yellow notepad as Aaron is infamous for.
But let's start with your game though, that you want to cover Arkansas versus Utah.
Ironically, this is also on his games of the week. I just saw it's down below, so quite interesting. He has it at 54 and a half over under with Arkansas plus 12 and a half.
[00:07:23] Speaker B: Yeah. So we go to Salt Lake here and as a buddy from mine or a buddy of mine, he used to live in Salt Lake for a while.
He wasn't a Mormon fellow, but he said that he would. The saying around Salt Lake is it's a small little drinking town with a Mormon problem, not a Mormon town with a drinking problem, but I have heard of that.
[00:07:42] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:07:44] Speaker B: Anyway, I think there was a shirt. In fact, I think I had a shirt that said that at one point in my life. Anyway, not. I'm. If you're Mormon, I'm sorry, but you're probably not watching a sports betting podcast. Anyway, in that case.
So Arkansas, Utah. So I'm going with the over here again. So over 55. I think there's gonna be a lot of points. Yeah, Utah was unstoppable last week and they played Idaho. And Idaho, obviously not a very good school, small conference. They beat them 66, 14. But they put up, you know, a lot of passing yards.
[00:08:11] Speaker A: A lot of.
[00:08:11] Speaker B: Right. In fact, they put up more passing yards than Idaho's total yards and more running yards than Idaho's total yards. They ran for 364 yards. They averaged 8.6 yards per play.
So I mean, they can move the ball. They're ranked, I think. Yeah, they're ranked number 20 in the nation.
You know, Devin Dampier, it's kind of funny actually. My roommate out here in Vegas, actually, his best friend's cousin is actually Devin Dampier. That place where they use their quarterback. Oh, yeah. But anyway, Morgan Scaley, he's their head coach and he really likes Damn Pier.
You know, they had a couple problems last week. Just in the third and fourth quarter. They kind of didn't close out as. As you know, well as they could have. And Scaly kind of got on his team about that. But I still think they're going to roll here. Obviously, that's why the spread is over double digits. Regarding the Razorbacks, they've just been a pretty. I don't want to say a bad team, but a disappointing team over the past couple years. They beat Northern Alabama 3114 in their season opener last year. They held the ball for 41 minutes too, but they only averaged three yards per carry. They ran the ball for 148 yards, three yards of carry. So they're gonna have to run the ball a lot better. Ryan Silverfield, their new head coach, he says we got to run the ball a lot better and I think they will. He's a pretty good head coach.
And the thing with the Razorbacks, they're often so KJ Jackson is their quarterback. They have a really good wide receiver, Kris Marshall that they take some shots with and I think that they're going to put up some points here against Utah and I think Utah is just going to roll. They're going to continue. They're going to pick up right where they left off last week. So give me over 55 with the Razorbacks and the Utes in Salt Lake
[00:09:43] Speaker A: City at comments on this game.
[00:09:47] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean Arkansas only scored what, 31 points last week. I think the problem Arkansas, besides the run game, they turned the ball over what, three times. So I think coming in this game, if you like the over, maybe Utah. We all know Morten Scaly, he's that defense is known for getting turnovers and executing off those based off the history he's had there from going from the D.C. to Coach du waning to now the coach that Willingham has left and gone to Michigan. But yeah, I mean look for Arkansas. The key for them to stay in this game will not be turning the ball over. I mean Utah we know can move it. Dampier has shown that he can do that the second year at the University of Utah after he transferred in from New Mexico. I'm not worried about Utah's offense for me I'm worried about Arkansas. Will they be able to sustain drives? Will they be able to move the ball through the ground and take pressure off the quarterback? If not, it could be in for a long day that could lead to a lot of turnovers.
As far as the over under, I would probably lean towards the over, but I also like Utah here to roll too. I don't trust Arkansas. New coach, new staff, they're still feeling each other out. It's going to be a building year in Arkansas going to the Salt Lake, traveling there, late night game on the west coast of Rome. As you mentioned, it's one of my games to watch since it's about a 7:30 kickoff there. Late night action for everybody here on the west coast, east coast as well before you get ready for Sunday morning football in the NFL. But yeah, I'll Lean towards Utah over. And I like Utah to cover the 11 and a half as well.
[00:11:09] Speaker A: Is it 11 and a half or
[00:11:10] Speaker C: 12 and a half?
I got that 11 and a half.
[00:11:14] Speaker A: Okay. A little different than what you sent us. Got it.
[00:11:17] Speaker C: Yeah.
[00:11:18] Speaker B: It must be coming down then because I think it was 12 and a half yesterday, which actually means that there's some money coming in on Arkansas, honestly. But I, I would roll with Utah. I'm kind of on board with Aaron too. I think that Utah can win this. I think this game could go over and Utah could win in a blowout. Like I think they can win this game like 48 to 20, you know what I mean? Just like they're just going to run away with it and the game goes over just because Arkansas puts up. They almost hit the 55 on their own. I think that could happen in this game.
[00:11:44] Speaker C: Yeah, I agree. I mean it feels to me like a 40, 41, 21 type game for Arkansas to stay in the game. Let's mention they will not have to turn the ball over. If Arkansas doesn't turn the ball over, I think we're in for a shootout, high scoring game and a tight one. But right now from what I've seen from Arkansas, they're a little loose with the ball and Utah will capitalize on that.
[00:12:03] Speaker A: Nice. Any other college games that you like to give out to our casual.
Maybe they might maybe not be betting on any of these sports websites or prediction markets. Anything that you guys like, you guys want to dish out.
[00:12:20] Speaker B: I'm sure Aaron might have a couple games he wants to talk about. But I know we got to hit the NFL here real quick. But yeah, I, I usually, I'll just tell your listeners kind of the way I approach this because obviously I sell my picks online and then I bet games too. I bet everything that I, I released as far as sales goes. But you know, I'll bet some other games with late breaking information as well that, you know, didn't make the card.
But normally I try to have my college football plays in by Tuesday to try to beat the market and then NFL plays by Wednesday.
I've just been slammed this week, man. I had Labor Day on Monday so I was kind of going all over the place and had a lot of stuff to do. Then Tuesday came, I was playing catch up from not being in the driver's seat on Monday. And then today I have this show and I had to run all over town, run an errand. So I haven't really. I literally have only looked at like three or four games intensely. Like, you know, I normally research them. So I've kind of only looked at these two. I'm probably going to have the remainder of my college card out tonight and then I'll do NFL maybe tomorrow morning.
[00:13:13] Speaker A: Nice. Sounds good, Aaron.
[00:13:16] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean, if we're looking at one more college game, if you want, I will. Since we've been on the theme of over unders, I'm looking at Arizona State, Texas A and m over under 50 and a half. I like the under in that one. 50 and a half. Texas A and M, we know their defense is great. They did not get scored on in the opener.
Arizona State, known for their high flying offense, travels to Kyle Field, 105,000 screaming fans. I find it hard to believe that Arizona State's going to be able to score for 17 points in this game. Texas A and M breaking in a new oc. They kind of struggled in the first half, got things rolling in the second half. But this is a much tougher matchup against the one of the better teams in the Big 12 in Arizona State. So I like under 15 and a half between Texas A and M. Arizona State going to say 2717 will be the final there.
[00:14:04] Speaker A: Nice.
All right, you guys ready to switch gears to the NFL?
[00:14:12] Speaker B: Yeah, let's roll. Do it. Yeah. So I was going to start actually I don't want to give out a play on the the Wednesday night game only because we're shooting this on Wednesday. I don't even know if the show will be up on Wednesday.
So I will start on Thursday night. So we go down under, boys. We go to Australia.
By the way, this game's on Netflix.
Netflix has, you know, this game on Thursday.
They have a game the day before Thanksgiving on a Wednesday. This year there is a football game is the packers and Rams and Netflix has that game. It's a Wednesday in the middle of the season, which I thought was pretty interesting.
And then they have a Christmas game every year too. It's kind of tough keeping track of, you know, where all these games are being streamed on. You always sit down. You always knew back in the day what channel the game was on. Now it's like, oh man, I got to figure out what app these games are on. But Anyway, so yeah, 49ers Rams, we are looking at Melbourne, Australia. It's at the Cricket Grounds, San Fran. They've just had a lot of injuries the past two seasons. Obviously Bosa, he's going to be back this year. He had the ACL is coming back from that, but he's had some tendinitis and so he hasn't. You know, they scale back his workouts and training camp, but he is ready to go. Raheem Morris, he's their new defensive coordinator there in San Francisco and he said that, you know, Bose is a full go, which is good for him. Good for the Niners. They're definitely going to need him this year.
Sam. Okay. Nonu, he had a foot injury, so he's not going to be playing here. Alfred Collins is out for the year, so they're already having a couple injury issues on the defensive front, which is not a good sign right out of the gate. But on offense they got Mike Evans from Tampa. Big addition, right? I know he's on the downside of his career, but believe me, he can still make some plays and make some noise in the league. They drafted Dazon Stribling in the second round. They expect big things from him. Devo Samuel, they got him back.
They haven't had a thousand yard receiver since Brandon Ayuk, if you guys remember. So you know Purdy, you know, he needs a dog. He needs a dog to throw to. I think Evans will be that dog. I really like desean Stribling too. I think he's gonna have a good year. And Kittle, don't forget about Kittle. Right.
He's obviously coming off an Achilles and I was thinking they wouldn't start him in this Australia game only because it's an unfamiliar field. They never played on it before but. But he's gonna start. So Purdy has all his weapons for you there. Rome, I know you're a big Niner fan, but McCaffrey, I think McCaffrey has a pretty good game here. He said or last year when they played the Rams between the two games that he had eight receptions in both matchups. I actually kind of like him over receiving yards. If you guys want a player prop like Christian McCaffrey over 38 and a half receiving yards in this game. Just because I think the Rams defense is going to get after Purdy, right with Miles Garrett and I know Aaron Donald's not playing, but they have a really good up up front rush. So I think Purdy's going to be under some pressure. They're going to have to throw some short passes and get rid of the ball. They're going to do that to McCaffrey and probably some Debo Samuel as well. So like McCaffrey over his yardage total for receiving yards only. Okay.
And then I do have a play on the side I like the Niners plus the three and a half. I mean obviously the Rams, they've done a lot of good things in the off season. They got McDuffie from Kansas City, Miles Garrett came in. Defensively, they were terrible at the end of last year, but it seems like they've kind of fixed a lot of those issues. Hookah, he's back. He's had some offseason drama issues and he's actually, he's been hurt a little bit at camp, but they say he's a full go. And Stafford, you know, obviously he was MVP of the league last year. I think they're going to have a good year.
[00:17:27] Speaker C: But.
[00:17:27] Speaker B: And I'll give you an interesting stat.
Michael Shanahan versus Sean McVay, their head to head career. The Niners are actually 11 and 8 straight up against the LA Rams, so. And the Rams have only beaten the Niners by more than four points four times in those 19 games.
So give me the Niners here, man. History tells us it's going to be a close game. By the way, they've been. They've been there a week. The Niners have been there a week. The Rams just left yesterday.
[00:17:54] Speaker C: I think the Rams just landed is what I'm hearing. Maybe. Yeah. Never know with that.
[00:17:58] Speaker B: So maybe the Niners are acclimated. But they said McVeigh said he kind of just wanted to get there and plow through it and come home. So who knows whose philosophy is is good there and will work better. But give me the Niners plus three and a half and McCaffrey over 38 and a half receiving yards.
[00:18:13] Speaker A: Yeah, the whole concept was for them to sleep on the plane on the way over there. I don't know if you guys have been on a long flight. I cannot sleep very well on long flights. I've been on a 16 hour flight before.
[00:18:23] Speaker C: Brutal sleeping gas. Rome. That little sleeping gas like and then boom, 100% show up ready to go.
[00:18:30] Speaker A: I'm not sure how that's going to work out, to be honest with you. I would be pretty groggy to get off a plane after that long of a flight. Pretty breathless though, or restless. So maybe it is a recipe for success.
Aaron, do you want to go on this game as well or do you got another NFL pick for us?
[00:18:46] Speaker C: Yeah, I do want to go on this game. Rome. Look, the Rams did a similar philosophy when they went to London last year. They just showed up and they played the Jaguars the day before the game. Blew them out. 35, 7. I know. Sniper likes the 49ers. I'm on the opposite here. I'm taking the Rams for me. Team chemistry, right? You've mentioned Mike Evans coming from over there. Juwan Jennings is gone. Ricky Purcell's gone. George Kittle probably limited in this game defensively. They just lost Collins, one of their starting defensive tackles. Joey Post is probably on a snap count to me. Brock Purdy and the Niners are going to take time to rev up and get going. The Rams got all their offensive weapons back. They added Miles Garrett. The brought over basically the secondary from the Chiefs to improve that side of the field. As Wes mentioned, the second half of the year, especially the playoffs, they were bad, but the first half they were good. I mean, yes, the 49ers have had great success against them, but I think this is a spot for the Rams to come out the gate as the super bowl favorites and make a statement. I believe McVay and these guys are going to want to do that. Remember, they lost a big game at home on Thursday night as a 10 point favorite against the B squad of the Niners last year.
Divisional game.
Neutral site. This is one of the weird times where the Rams, when they played at home was always a road game against the Niners. So now there's no crowd, nothing like that. I agree. I think Miles Garrett, they get after Brock Birdie and I think there's. The chemistry of the wide receivers is going to take time to work up. The Rams will have it going. I like the Rams here, minus three and a half. I actually lean towards the under two because I think the 49ers are going to struggle to score points. So. So give me The Rams though, minus three and a half. I like the under 48 as well.
[00:20:26] Speaker A: Nice. Do you guys know who has a bigger fan base down there in Australia? Is it the 49ers or the Rams? If I had thought I heard something, if I.
[00:20:35] Speaker B: If I had to guess, I would say the Niners. The Niners have fans all over the globe somehow. And it's funny because the Rams are in one of the most, you know, populated cities in the world.
And no, there's no Rams fans that go to their games.
It's kind of mind boggling, you know.
[00:20:49] Speaker C: It's corporate, man. It's corporate. The Rams are corporate. Yeah.
[00:20:52] Speaker B: Yeah.
Well, Kronke just bought the Angels, right? He buys up everything. He's got the. He's got the Nuggets, he's got MLS teams, he's got the Avalanche, man. The guy's portfolio is huge.
[00:21:03] Speaker A: He Owns pretty huge. He does.
All right, next game, Sniper, you provided us with one of your additional picks. You got Commanders versus Eagles.
Take it away.
[00:21:17] Speaker B: Yeah. So, you know, obviously the divisional rivalry here, this is actually a later game on the docket. Normally with an east coast game in Philadelphia here, it would be, you know, 1pm Eastern, 10am Pacific kickoff. But they did this one a little bit later at the 4pm Eastern hour on Sunday. But, you know, Jalen Hurts, it's so funny. And you guys know this, he's been with the Eagles five years now, maybe six. I forget. But every single year he's been with the Eagles, he's had a new offensive coordinator.
So how you, how you supposed to, you know, get used to a system having any cohesiveness there when every single year there's a new offense installed? This year it's Sean Manion comes in. He's a Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay product, but he's got Hurts under center this year. Hurts has been primarily a shotgun quarterback his entire career. And now all of a sudden he's, you know, it's pretty motion heavy, wide zone scheme, a lot of under center looks, play action, timing based throws. So they have said that Hertz has put a lot of work in and he actually likes the offense and. But it's just different. My point is there's no continuity there in Philadelphia as far as the offense goes, which is why Sirianni always seems to be on the hot seat.
But you know, wide receiver wise A.J. brown, he's in New England now. They did draft Makai Lemon, but he's having some hamstring issues already. Don Tavian Wicks, that got him from Green Bay, obviously. Devonta Smith, he's their number one receiver now. So we'll see if the wide receiver room takes a dip. I personally think it will maybe a little bit. Offensive line, they got healthy. Landon Dickerson, he's back. He went to Columbia, the country and got some stem cell surgery. So maybe that helped him in his back issues.
And yeah, as it relates to. And don't forget Jalen Carter. He got that four year, $152 million extension. Biggest contract in the history for a defensive player of the NFL. So good for him. These Eagles are a top five defense, you know, in the NFL. You got the Seahawks, Broncos, Texans, Rams, and Philly in my, you know, for my money, that's the top five defenses in the NFL. The Commanders, a lot of turnover here. Two new coordinators, six new draft picks.
They did get Stefan Diggs from I believe he was on Houston, right? He had an injury there.
[00:23:24] Speaker A: He was, yeah.
[00:23:25] Speaker C: They got him from Patriots, right?
[00:23:28] Speaker A: Yeah, he was in the Patriots last year.
[00:23:30] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's right. And here's the deal. Defensively the Commanders were not very good last year, but they drafted Sonny Styles number seven overall. And remember Dan Quinn, He's a defensive minded head coach. He, you know, arguably should have won a Super bowl with the New England Patriots if the debacle hadn't happened and 20 miracles in a row didn't happen for the Patriots.
So I think he's going to get this defense turned around. Jayden Daniels has put up her shut off time. I think he's going to have a good year. A lot of people are down on the Commanders this year. Not me, man. I think the Commanders, I don't, I don't think maybe they won the division but I saw their over under total was 7 and a half wins and that seems really low. So you're telling me I can get them to go eight and nine and I get to cash in over seven and a half ticket for a team with arguably a top 10 quarterback in the NFL when healthy that when you know that was a rookie of the year and, and an NFL MVP candidate in the same year just two years ago and the only reason he was down last year was because of injuries and they're getting a better defense. I'm higher on the Commanders than a lot of people think in this game though. Give me the under.
I like under 44 and a half. I think it's going to be a lower scoring game. I think Philly takes a while to get that offense to gel the new offense once again.
And I think Washington's defense is going to be much better. Like I said and remember Philly's defense is top five in the NFL. Like the under here in week one between the Commanders and the Eagles.
[00:24:56] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean look, I'm, I'm going to piggyback right off what sniper said. I'm high on the commanders as well. 7 and a half seems like a low total. This is a team, remember two years ago made it to the NFC championship game. They overachieved that year. Way underachieved last year. I think their middle ground so winning eight, nine games, I don't think out of the question.
As he mentioned Philadelphia top defense, Vic Fangio there, they're going to have a tough unit again. Washington's bringing in two new coordinators, stunning styles. I think he's going to be your defensive rookie of the year he's just that good. He's going to get 120, 130 tackles, maybe four or five interceptions. He's going to improve that defense in Philly. Like Wes said, the offense, a lot of new pieces there, new coordinator Makai Lemons there. Still got Goddard, but you know they lost a big time. They lost one of the best offensive line coaches in the last 20 years in the NFL. He retired. Their offensive line has gotten healthy but Jalen Hurts is going under center something he wasn't very comfortable back in his days in college. He's more of a shotgun guy, likes to see the field, doesn't make really good reads. I think he could turn the ball over a lot here in this game. He was not careful. Agree. I like the under 44 and a half because I think the Eagles defense is good enough to keep the commanders out. But I wouldn't be surprised if Washington goes in and upsets the Eagles in this opener. And you know they'll be calling for Sirianna's hot seat as Russ mentioned, first game of the season. But yeah, I like commanders to cover four and a half and I agree. I like the under 44 and a half as well.
[00:26:18] Speaker A: Wow. So potential upset here, huh?
[00:26:21] Speaker C: Yes.
[00:26:22] Speaker A: All right. Any other NFL games you would like to give out for this first edition of the sofa wise guys?
[00:26:30] Speaker B: Yeah, you know, I, I like. I'll just kind of run down the schedule here real quick. I don't really have any more analysis, but I was a big fan of taking Chicago minus two and a half. But that was a week. Or actually it was back in contest week. I was talking to our boys Kiev and Tony George and Sean Noki about it. They were all really high on Chicago for week one. Chicago Bears minus two and a half is up at three and a half. So that probably was the sharp play. But you can't play it now. If you could have got it at two and a half before, that just means that you should have pulled the trigger earlier. Right.
So I would probably lay off that now at this point. I think Jacksonville beats the you know what out of Cleveland. I think Cleveland's just in for another long year.
I think that.
I think that whoever's idea it was to put the jets against the Titans in week one should be fired because that's just a terrible game.
[00:27:18] Speaker C: Although revenge game.
[00:27:20] Speaker A: Right?
[00:27:21] Speaker B: No, I get it. I. I get it. That's maybe your only angle that would make this game even watchable. I might even take that off my. I have the quad boxes So I have two big TVs in my, my living room. So I get the quad box. So I get eight games. Right. I might even take that off the quad box.
And oh, actually the crappiest game is the Dolphins and the Raiders. That's just disastrous.
[00:27:47] Speaker A: I think that might be the worst game of the week. Okay.
[00:27:50] Speaker C: Yeah, there's a couple, there's a couple games that could be the worst game of the week. I mean, obviously Dolphins, Raiders, Jets, Titans.
I mean, I'm not sure what we're going to get from TUA and the Falcons. I mean, to be honest.
[00:28:03] Speaker A: I mean, I don't either.
[00:28:05] Speaker C: I'm not sure what we're going to get from the Steelers too. I mean, Rogers usually, week one, he could come out like gangbusters. It looked great last year in week one, but yeah, three and a half that line kind of tricky. I mean, Texans, Bills, I think that's a great game. I mean, there was any team that Josh Allen has struggled against in the regular season. Not playoffs related, but regular season season. The Texans have seemed to have his number. So that's a good game.
I agree. I mean, I was on the Bears kind of early too, but I'm kind of starting to trend the other way around. I mean, there is a lot of injuries right now for the Bears, especially in the secondary.
And Bryce Young gets a big year four. It's time for him to take that leap as we talked about with some of these other quarterbacks. But we got some good, you know, games to start off here with. You know, rematch of the Super Bowl. Patriots, Seahawks, good Thursday night with the Niners, Rams and Sunday night Football. Cowboys. Giants will be good along with divisional rival in Broncos, Chiefs Monday night. So some good early action and late action in the week to close out the NFL Week 1.
[00:29:05] Speaker B: Yeah, to piggyback on that, I think the Tampa and Cincinnati could be a sneaky good game. Honestly, I think it's a great game.
[00:29:11] Speaker C: Shootout. It could be a shootout.
[00:29:12] Speaker B: I think it's the set of 50 and that's an NFL 50. So that's, you know, probably going to be a shootout there also too. You know what I think can be too sneaky? Goodwill. We mentioned Dallas and the Giants, but I think the packers and Vikings might be a pretty good game. Honestly, I want, I'm interested to see how Kyler Murray looks and you know, if the packers are going to finally get something done this year with Jordan. Love it. Kind of feels like they always underachieve. So I'm interested to watch that game too.
[00:29:37] Speaker A: I'M not buying the Kyler Murray stuff.
[00:29:40] Speaker C: Yeah, I am, Rome. I am at least week one. I am at least week. Packers are what? Oh, packers are what? 0405 out Micah Parsons. And we didn't even talk about Josh Jacobs not playing. I think that could be a factor in this game. A guy that can get in there and get those tough yards. But make or break season really for Kyler Murray.
[00:29:58] Speaker B: Yeah, I, I agree. But I think about this Rome.
What has Kyler Murray ever had? I mean, I get that he had, you know, Marvin Harrison Jr. But he kind of has underachieved, you know, his first two years in the season already.
He just never really had a good offense or even a good head coach or offensive court. Well, he had Kingsbury, I guess, who's an offensive mind, but that just didn't really work. And now you go up there, you get, you know, o' Connell, who's apparently the quarterback whisperer they call him. So if anybody's going to fix him, it'll probably be him. And Minnesota still maybe not a top five, but they're probably a top 10 defense. So really good defense there. So this is by far and away this is the best team Kyler Murray has ever been on in his career for sure. That's what goes without saying.
[00:30:42] Speaker A: Kyler Murray for sure. I just cannot expect him to produce anything more than he did in Arizona with an up and down.
[00:30:50] Speaker C: Well, I mean his, his early years before he went towards ACL 2 three seasons ago. I mean he put up some pretty good numbers, you know. Now he's got Jefferson Addison, a good tight end.
As mentioned, the quarterback, Risb Connell, we saw what he did.
[00:31:06] Speaker A: Phenomenal receiving, Darnold.
[00:31:08] Speaker C: So yeah, I mean if you're Minnesota, you got a top 10 defensive unit. As you guys mentioned, Kyler Murray, he's got weapons. This is like I said, it's a make or break year for him for sure.
[00:31:21] Speaker B: I agree. By the way, did. Is J.J. mcCarthy still on the squad? I heard he might get caught.
[00:31:26] Speaker A: He is quarterback three right now for week one.
[00:31:30] Speaker C: That's pretty clip emergency.
[00:31:32] Speaker B: Yeah, that's pretty sad when Carson Wentz is beating you out and you were, you know, the number one overall draft pick and supposedly the savior in Minnesota. Wow, how far he's fallen.
[00:31:41] Speaker A: Well, it ain't over yet. All right, so we got college football.
[00:31:45] Speaker C: I heard he potential in the NCAA to go back to college.
[00:31:51] Speaker A: Alice, you finally back down. So we got college football, Missouri versus Kansas. Both the guys have over 50 and a half in the border war. Aaron with the lean on Kansas covering the five and a half. Arkansas versus Utah over 55.
It is 54 and a half on Aaron's board, but both guys like the over and Aaron likes Utah to cover.
Wes gave a t a betting tip on placing bets on Tuesday to take advantage of the market. So be on the lookout for additional tips throughout the year. All you sports bettors out there for the NFL. Both guys talked about Niners versus Rams. Wes gots the Niners plus three and a half. Aaron's taking the Rams minus three and a half with the under 48. West also provided some side play, so be sure to catch that, especially with McAffrey and the receiving yards. Commanders versus Eagles under 44 and a
[00:32:46] Speaker C: half
[00:32:48] Speaker A: both like the under and with Aaron leaning on a potential upset and cover from the Commanders.
Anything else, guys?
Any locks, any additional picks, any bonus plays you want to give our listeners?
[00:33:08] Speaker B: Well, there's no such thing as a lock in sports betting. That's my word of advice for the day.
[00:33:15] Speaker C: Nice.
[00:33:15] Speaker B: I mean, we talked about it earlier. We talked about 28 3, the Falcons leading the Patriots. I would have said that was a lock at halftime. I would have said it.
[00:33:24] Speaker A: It was a lock. Dude, that thing was rigged.
[00:33:27] Speaker C: Even if you watch the replay of that game years later, it's still tough to watch.
[00:33:30] Speaker A: And it's tough to watch.
[00:33:32] Speaker C: It's still tough to believe they lost that game.
[00:33:35] Speaker B: Yeah, the Edelman catch where he caught it a inch off the turf and it didn't hit the ground. I mean, the game was over. That thing hits the ground and that was amazing. An inch. An inch.
[00:33:47] Speaker C: The Patriots have been in more fun, incredible super bowl moment games than anybody. You got that catch. You got, you know, the catch for the Giants on the helmet, the interception on the goal line. So against, you know, Seattle in which all they had to do is give it to lynch and he just walks in for a touchdown. Yeah, a lot of crazy moments.
[00:34:06] Speaker B: Well, when you go to 10 Super Bowls as a franchise, you're probably going to have a lot of moments.
[00:34:11] Speaker A: Yeah, they have a lot for Silver
[00:34:14] Speaker C: 10 off field too, and issues as well. So the organization never lacks story lines.
[00:34:22] Speaker A: 100. All right, well, that'll do it then. For the first episode, the sofa wise guys, a little branch off from the source of the sofa podcast. Catch us every week we're gonna be recording starting off from now every Wednesday. We'll get it out by Wednesday late afternoon. That's the goal. So you can have your picks for Thursday, Friday and the weekend for college football and the NFL. For now, I'm Roman Valdez. We got Sniper west and Aaron Toler. We are out.
