NFL Divisional Round Preview & Sofa Bets

[00:00:02] Speaker A: We got full lineup tonight. We're recording late Thursday night, early Friday morning however you want to look at it. It's NFL divisional round weekend. The final eight teams, we start off this Saturday, Houston versus Kansas City, Washington against Detroit, then on Sunday LA Rams against Philly and the Baltimore Ravens against the Buffalo Bills. Sunday night. No Monday night game this week. I'm happy about it. Just Saturday and Sunday. So I think there's like a lot to cover, lots of interesting lines. So let's get at it. But before we do, anything off the top of your guys heads that you're kind of intrigued about for this weekend before it kicks off, besides the Texans. [00:00:46] Speaker B: Being in perpetuity on Saturday at 1pm for the playoffs, they just. Is that the only time slot the NFL was going to schedule? Houston. [00:00:54] Speaker A: That's pretty crazy. I saw. Yeah, Texans always play a game that 4:30pm Eastern slot but that is also the time where Kansas City under B. Holmes. Like what's like 0 and 3 at the time slot. Yeah. Obviously a winning record outside of that. So maybe some good juju coming our way. [00:01:17] Speaker C: Little interesting storyline there, huh? [00:01:19] Speaker A: A late Christmas present. Yeah, yeah, I'm all for it man. I'm all for it. [00:01:24] Speaker C: I, I think this could be a pretty good game. [00:01:28] Speaker A: Out of the final eight. Who are you most surprised that are here right now? Because obviously like every team is pretty good. I don't think we have any questions about anybody. [00:01:40] Speaker B: I would say if you go back to September, the Rams, probably the most surprising team, you know, early in September, had tons of injuries. Heck, they're one of the four teams that lost to the Bears early in the season when the Bears were four and two at that time. So and that. And they were around the trade deadline. They were potentially, you know, sellers on Cooper cup and people talking puka and different things like that. So you know that they were a team that really wasn't on the ascent and really had that strong second half, won the division, pretty big statement win last week to, you know, take down a 14 and 3 Vikings team. That was kind of the shock of the league. And I mean that game wasn't even close. So we talked about the last pod. So out of all the teams I'd say, you know, the Rams would be the most surprising right now. [00:02:37] Speaker C: Yeah, I'm going to agree with that. I mean The Rams were 1 and 4 then finish up 9 and 3. Essentially just threw away that last game against Seattle. They, they weren't worried about seed. I mean they were real comfortable playing either Minnesota or Detroit when they had. [00:02:53] Speaker A: A chance more than anything. [00:02:54] Speaker C: Yeah. When they had a chance to, you know, play the commanders. But yeah, I agree with Jason. Based off how the month of September went, the Rams being here is definitely probably the biggest shocker. I mean, if you were to say before the start of the season, probably the commanders be at the top of the list. I mean, we thought they'd be better. Think they'd win, you know, 12 games during the regular season. I mean, Jaden Daniels we knew would be good, but he was, he's a runaway rookie of the year. So that's, you know, not a surprise, but that he's a rookie of the year, but how he's done it and how he's led that team on his shoulders. So those two teams obviously would be the biggest surprises. [00:03:35] Speaker A: Yeah. You know, we talked about the wild card weekend a little bit, the Rams beating up on the Vikings, and I'm not sure we talked more about like that Darnold arc a little of how phenomenal he was all year. And I know Jason was hating early in the year. He's like, it's going to all come crashing out. I think they were like four one or whatever. It was five and one and Jason, you got your wish at the end of the season. Little late, but I just think an interesting storyline. I think in the season they also lost back to back games when they played the Lions and the Rams and then it happened again, you know, a chance to have a number one seed and then they face the Rams in the wild card and first 14, one team to lose in the wild card. It's pretty impressive. And the ghost of Sam Darnold came back. Kind of a weird ending to that. And do you think he gets a big contract or is it like all over? [00:04:40] Speaker B: It's not over, but I think the last two starts definitely lost him a significant amount of money. You know, whether it's from the Vikings or another team that needs a quarterback, your Steelers, the Raiders, you know, somebody else out there, I don't know, you know, but in the quarterback market. So I don't think it helped. It was, it was a prime time game in the Sunday night to end the season and didn't look good. And then now another primetime game here in the playoffs. So at the end of the day though, people are always desperate for a quarterback and they think, ah, you know, you had something. [00:05:18] Speaker A: To be fair, it's only two bad games. Everyone has two bad games. [00:05:22] Speaker B: It was. But there were some games in the middle of the season too. And so I We've done a lot of analysis and talk about this too, but there is a. Sam Darnold's probably an average NFL quarterback, which is, you know, hey, I don't say average is a bad thing. You're talking about, hey, the top 32 people in the world playing the hardest position there. So, okay, this guy is. [00:05:45] Speaker A: Where do you. [00:05:46] Speaker B: I mean, you say average, you're telling me that there's like, you don't think there's like 12, 13 NFL starting quarterbacks that you would put ahead of Sam Darnold if you were to do a fantasy draft right now on quarterbacks you would take. [00:05:59] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean, I agree with Jason. I mean, he's probably ranked anywhere from 15 to 20. [00:06:03] Speaker A: I'm not ready to do that ranking yet, but having to do that after the whole season. [00:06:08] Speaker B: Yeah, we do it the season 15. [00:06:09] Speaker A: To 20, huh, Aaron? [00:06:11] Speaker C: Oh, yeah. I mean, I'd let Darnold walk. Right. You know, I wouldn't even let him back in the building. I give him the Robert Sala treatment. Nice knowing. See you. [00:06:21] Speaker B: And, and the Vikings have the succession plan that was going to be the starter anyways to start the season. So I mean, they're. Aaron talked about, you know, they could franchise tag him for a year and they probably still have the cap space to afford it with JJ being on the, the rookie contract and stuff. But it'd be interesting because for a team that wants a quarterback, he'll probably be high in demand because. And going back to what I was talking about, like, not being an average NFL quarterback is bad, but like depending on the system and the tools around him. Yeah, he could put up the numbers he had this year. You get, you get J.J. you get Addison, you get Aaron Jones in the running game, you know, Hocketts in a tight end. Hey, these are good pieces to work around. You have a good, you know, great, potentially head Coach with Kevin O'Connell that like calls the plays, knows the system, knows your strengths, able to emphasize what the strengths of the quarterback is. You get in the right place. Yeah, these, these guys are. They were the best quarterbacks in high school, the best quarterbacks in college, and they have a certain set of skills. Like Donald went third overall. Like he was a USC quarterback. There's skill there that, you know, the best coaches could probably get something out of. It's just going to be is it the right fit? And there's their pieces around it. [00:07:28] Speaker A: Interesting. All right, let's jump back into the games. Houston Texans at Kansas City chiefs here by eight. I got eight o'clock. I got minus eight right here over under 41 and a half kind of low. Chiefs are heavily favored. What's your guys thoughts on this one? [00:07:55] Speaker B: I was looking, I was looking it up. Aaron is our resident betting expert so I don't want to go against him but some of the, some of these things as I was going into these games I was. We didn't talk about this a lot during the season. At least on the pod is like what were these teams against the spread this year, huh? And based on what I'm looking at Aaron, I think Houston's 7 and 8 against the spread and Kansas City's like 8 and 9. So these are like 2500 against the spreadish teams probably depending what sportsbook you're looking at or something like that. [00:08:30] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:08:30] Speaker B: And. And now you're walking into a game that's got a eight point spread or eight and a half point spread depending what you're looking at. It can go either way. Where I feel like Kansas City played a ton of close games. It was just you know, winning by, you know, winning by a yard here at the end of the game or an inch of a field goal here and there and Rome's just begging for their losses. So eight points. Does that seem too much? Especially the Texans seem to have woken something last week when their wild card victory. I don't know that was, that was the big thing drawn to me is like, I mean I easily want to take the Texans plus eight at this right now because it feels like hey, the Chiefs can't cover that and it's going to be a close game. [00:09:13] Speaker A: What you got? [00:09:14] Speaker C: I mean yeah, these teams just played what about a month ago and ironically I just looked it up. KC won that game by eight points, 27 19. But it was 17 16. Real close came then, you know, Tank Dell goes down for the season. That was kind of really a big blow for Houston. That game emotionally just kind of took the soul out of that team and Kansas City kind of just ran away from it from there. [00:09:38] Speaker A: Houston's had a few those this season worth. [00:09:42] Speaker C: I mean we kind of all were like giving up on Houston and it seems like everybody's just ready to ride on Kansas City. You know I think I brought it up Monday and then Jason brought up a lot during the playoffs. College football, you know, rest versus Russ, I mean Casey Mahomes and these guys really haven't played a meaningful game in three weeks. So are they going to come out like gangbusters on fire and roll? Houston are they going to come out a little flat. Houston's going to get a lead and we're going to see typical Kansas City slowly build back up and win late in the game. I'm in agreeance with Jason here. I mean, eight points is a lot for a good Texans defensive team. They're healthy on that side of the ball. I know Joe Mixon got dinged up in practice this week. He's questionable. I believe he'll be activated, but it's going to come down to CJ Stroud. Can he get the passing game going? Can he make big plays? This offense is capable of it. With Nico Collins and a few other guys, Dalton Schultz got to have a big game. I like the Texans to cover eight, and I mean, I picked him to get to the super bowl, so I kind of want them to win this game. I know, Rome, you do, too. Not saying they're going to, but I like their chances to cover the eight points. [00:10:50] Speaker A: Jason, are you taking Houston plus A? I. I don't think we got an answer. [00:10:54] Speaker B: I'm taking Houston +8, but I'm picking Kansas City to win the game. [00:11:04] Speaker A: I'm definitely taking Houston plus. I think it'd be a really close game. Just like the way Ohio State got that fire ignited when they lost to Michigan and woke up something inside them. Because this version was not, you know, this version of Ohio State that we're seeing now was not the same that we saw throughout the season, even though they dominated many of their games. That last win of this, of the regular season, they got some guys back. They're getting a little healthy. They got a chip on their shoulder. Yeah, yeah, they have the 4C, but no one's really counting on them. They kind of got like that no one believes in us kind of thing. There's always one of these teams in the playoffs. I got Houston with the upset here. They more than cover. I think they win by a touchdown. [00:11:55] Speaker B: Wow. He's been waiting all year for that, for this take, right? [00:12:01] Speaker A: I don't mind taking crazy takes, man. You got it. You just gotta sweep for the fences once in a while and I got nothing to lose here. [00:12:08] Speaker C: I mean, yeah, I mean, the Texans can win this game by a touchdown. Be a lot to ask. Their defense would have to probably get at least a score or two, maybe special teams. But I mean, I'm not writing Houston off. I mean, they've. They played well against the Chargers and from everything, it sounds like they're really confident group coming into this game. They're playing house money. They Got nothing to lose. [00:12:27] Speaker A: Yeah, they got. [00:12:28] Speaker C: The pressure's on the Chiefs dude. [00:12:30] Speaker A: You did mention like the rest and rust. KC always comes out really slow in the first half. They're kind of like a build it as you go. They're, they're a second half adjustment team. They got the best coach in the NFL and Andy Reid, big Tommy's burger guy. So I'll always be a fan of Andy Reid because that's my favorite burger, Tommy's double chili burger in la. If you never had it, go get it guys. It is phenomenal. [00:12:57] Speaker B: I agree with that. What do you want? Westbrook also I'll put in Aaron. I can't remember this stat. And this was, I think this is more Andy Reid when he's at the Eagles. And I don't know how much this is played with the Chiefs, but Andy Reid off a buy had like some insane like never lost stat. Like just give this guy two weeks to prepare and he's gonna know exactly every inch of what he needs to do from a game plan perspective. And then if you think back to like the Patriots era, like the Patriots never played a first round game ever. They always had the buy and it never phased them obviously for their success in the playoffs. So you get to team like Kansas City, like a little bit older. We know how to prepare for these games. I'm not buying that the, the rust is going to be as much of a factor like it would have been in the college game where college kids, finals time, you know, break and just, it's just different I think at the professional level for that. I think they want, they want the break. And the extra preparation does mean a little more. [00:14:00] Speaker A: It's an older team. Guys are coming off injuries, et cetera, et cetera. So I think the break does benefit. [00:14:08] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean they needed the break. I mean Mahomes had one, you know, made the high ankle sprain that he suffered there against what the Browns there in the game. He got beat up. I just looked it up. Yeah, I mean Andy Reid career is 21, four regular season off a buy. So 21 and four record. And like you said, Jason, I think it was like 17 and 118 and 1 movies in Philadelphia. Some, some crazy number, whatever it was. [00:14:34] Speaker B: Yeah. [00:14:36] Speaker C: But during the regular season coming off a buy, you have two weeks to prepare for an opponent because you already know who they are ahead of time in your schedule. This is the playoffs. Obviously they didn't know if the Texans are going to win, the Chargers are going to win, the Broncos upset, upset the Bills, they'd be going there. So I mean these two teams just like we said played a month ago, they're going to be kind of similar with each other knowing what's going on. I think it benefits Houston playing them because they kind of got a feel of how Mahomes is in the pocket but his speed is and, and for the Texans, the defensively they, they put a lot of pressure on them. They hit Mahomes a lot. It's going to come down to big play. C.J. stroud, you know that's what's been missing from Houston all year is their offense is not really clicked and if they don't turn the ball over, they get some big plays. Nico Collins, Joe Mixon, whoever it is in the running game. Like you said Rome, Houston has a really good shot to win this game. I'm not writing him off. [00:15:32] Speaker A: I love it. Definitely not going to miss it. One Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions Lions heavily favored as well. Seems like we just have like a lot of big spreads for three of the games. This which is kind of rare in the playoffs this deep but here we are. This is Saturday evening on Fo and over under is 55 and a half. You guys already know which way I'm going to lean so let's hear your guys take can the Commanders pull off an upset? [00:16:08] Speaker B: No. [00:16:11] Speaker A: And that's the end of the segment. Next game. [00:16:13] Speaker B: That's the end of the segment. Next. Now I look at it Aaron. What what I see this opened at minus five and a half and all the way up to nine and a half right now. Is that right? [00:16:27] Speaker C: Let's see. Let me see where we got it did. [00:16:30] Speaker A: Yeah. Five and a half. It opened up and the over under has increased by a couple points too. Why the four point increase? [00:16:43] Speaker B: That's the question I'm 100% wondering right now. Which makes me go more to my very blunt. No, the Lions can't win because obviously ton of money was going in on the Lions right away at five and a half and I don't recall any significant injury on the Commanders that, I mean that's. [00:17:08] Speaker A: This seems a little deep now because you gotta imagine this can be a shootout. But if the Lions play like the way they played against the Vikings that final week of the regular season, who knows. Otherwise I would probably take that five or six point bet. Nine and a half. That's steep. [00:17:35] Speaker B: Yeah, if you were open at the -5 and a half and had that action right when this line went out that I, I would have taken the Lions at That point. [00:17:42] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:17:43] Speaker B: But yeah, nine and a half. That's a lot. I've probably given some really bad takes around the Lions defense as they were starting to lose people towards the end. Probably specifically in that Minnesota game, both. [00:17:55] Speaker A: You guys jumped ships so quick. We got replays of those. [00:17:59] Speaker B: It wasn't jumping ship on the lines. It was more. It was more just a liability for them. Just like, man, like a lot of time, A lot of times you get this time of the year, like, and it's. It's just health. You know, when you go that deep in the depth chart, you always very much have it. So you start losing those guys, it's no shame on them. It's just overall, you don't have the health. But the Lions, I think got a couple guys back on defense. It was more just in the defensive. The defensive back area where the risk was at. You know, they're. It's. It's going to be tough. Like we Talked about Terry McLaren last week, like, professional wide receiver, makes the big throws. Really had a huge year with Jaden, and he had consistently good years with the merry go round of quarterbacks that have been in Washington, you know, the previous years in his career. I don't know. I mean, Aaron's deep in looking in this research right now, so I'm just curious, are you reading. [00:18:54] Speaker A: Is that the way you look like when you read. [00:18:56] Speaker C: Yeah. Yeah. So who are you taking? Jason? [00:19:04] Speaker A: This guy. Wow. Oh, he's gonna take the commanders, man. [00:19:08] Speaker B: I'm taking the Lions definitely to win. [00:19:10] Speaker A: So if Aaron's taking the Commanders and. [00:19:13] Speaker B: Aaron's taking the Caners. [00:19:14] Speaker A: Ah, that's what it looks like. [00:19:20] Speaker B: I think the spread's too big and I. I'd go plus nine and a half the commanders, but the Lions to win outright. [00:19:29] Speaker C: Yeah, I mean, that spread like you guys mentioned, that's, It's. It's kind of weird because it feels like a trap. Like they're begging us to take the commanders. Just how good they've played all year. [00:19:41] Speaker A: But just how good is Detroit? Watch, they put an ass whooping on this, which they can. [00:19:47] Speaker C: Yeah. I mean, they can. I mean, I'm. I really like the over. It's at one. 55 and a half. I think it was like at 53 and a half at one time. [00:19:57] Speaker A: Yeah, 55. I definitely got the over on that. [00:20:00] Speaker C: I mean, I, I feel like Detroit is going to score like 35 points in this game because I don't. I'm not a big believer in Washington's defense and they haven't played a speed offense like Detroit, so that really worries me. But at the same time Detroit defensively, yeah, they look good against Minnesota, but how good does that look now with the Rams? Just did to them. [00:20:21] Speaker A: And we'll cut their numbers though. [00:20:23] Speaker C: Yeah, and Jaden Daniels, we haven't seen him rattled in any game this year outside of maybe the opener of the season against Tampa Bay. I mean Washington, I haven't looked at their schedule but I can't think of a game in which they got beat by double figures all year. Off the top of my head, maybe that one in Philadelphia, Rome when you were here and it was like a one point game late in the third quarter. But that was a close game too. So I'm going to lean and take the Commanders plus nine and a half. I just think even if the Detroit is up, say 14, 15, you get a late touchdown. That doesn't mean anything for the result of the game but it covers the spread. I think Washington can do that. I mean Detroit at one time had 13 players on injured reserve on defense alone. Some of those guys are back but they play an aggressive defense. They gonna blitz a lot. Jaden Daniels, that means you got to make them one on one tackles with him and you know he, he can run the ball. I think he's gonna have a good game running the game. I just looked at his stats is 55 and a half is over under as far as running. So as a player prop I like over. I think he's going to have, for them to win, he's gonna have to have 75 plus yards rushing. So I like, I like Washington to cover the nine and a half. But I'm gonna agree Detroit finds a way to win this game. [00:21:38] Speaker B: And to follow back up what Aaron said, they lost to Dallas and lost to Philadelphia. Yeah, I'm looking at right now 8 lost by 8. So their only loss that they lost more than I have the entire season was the opening week versus Tampa Bay where they lost 37 to 20. [00:21:52] Speaker A: Yeah. Everything else by field goals. All right, so both of you guys, I got commanders covering. [00:22:04] Speaker B: Yes. [00:22:05] Speaker A: Yeah. [00:22:08] Speaker C: Detroit was a close one. [00:22:13] Speaker A: I'm, I'm thinking like the score might be like a 32, 27 somewhere around there. Okay, on to the Sunday games. Unless you guys have any other comments regarding those four teams. Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Washington Commanders, Detroit Lions. [00:22:36] Speaker B: I only have selfish comments while I'm picking the Lions. [00:22:40] Speaker A: Do you want to talk shit on Goff? [00:22:42] Speaker B: No. Selfish comments is if the Lions lose, that means Ben Johnson's available earlier That's, That's. That's all I want. [00:22:51] Speaker C: For the Bears or for the Raiders? [00:22:52] Speaker B: For the Bears. Get out of here. The Raiders. [00:22:58] Speaker A: I heard a crazy take on the McCarthy being available for the Bears. [00:23:02] Speaker C: Heard that dinner went pretty well last night, by the way. [00:23:05] Speaker B: Of course it did. The city of Chicago has reside itself that Mike McCarthy is going to be a head coach of the Bears. [00:23:12] Speaker A: Have compared it to. I think you mentioned the same thing to, to. To the Fox hire, how he brought. How he brought some credibility. But I didn't even like Fox and Denver. But McCarthy, though, there was a. It blew my mind, man. [00:23:25] Speaker C: You. [00:23:25] Speaker A: You, the Mike Tomlins that I don't like it. It just like, oh, my. I think I posted on. But it's so true. [00:23:36] Speaker B: Yeah. I mean, I don't know if we're talking full head coaching stuff right now, like, but yeah, the Chicago is. Has resigned itself as a city and a fan base because the ownership has just beat them down. They're like, yeah, this is going to be the guy. The concern right now, I think out of Chicago where they go is they rush to hire McCarthy because if the Lions make the deep playoff run and they don't hire McCarthy and then they get all the way to the end of the road to the super bowl to hire Ben Johnson, and then Ben Johnson isn't their guy. They lost out on both of their top two candidates and now who. Who are they left over with? So that's, that's the whole theory right now is they'll go McCarthy because he's available and not risking losing because they. [00:24:17] Speaker C: Like, both wants McCarthy right now. [00:24:19] Speaker B: I don't know if they want him, but I thought he was interviewing with the Saints. [00:24:23] Speaker A: You don't want to go to the Saints? [00:24:25] Speaker B: I don't think so. I mean, I, I still waited out. I've been saying it for months and you guys. And Rome's definitely tired of me talking about Ben Johnson. But, like, that's the guy. It's. It's what rumor Polls wants. I mean, it's rumored Caleb was on a podcast. He was on Amon Ron St. Brown's podcast this week. [00:24:43] Speaker C: Did you literally. [00:24:43] Speaker B: They were. They were just going him into like, trying to say he wants Ben and it was nothing but positive stuff. And he talked about wanting an offensive head coach. So, like, he's like, there's hoax. [00:24:53] Speaker A: Those kids pretend to be Ben Johnson texting him. [00:24:56] Speaker B: Yeah, he. He talked about it on that. On that podcast with. With Amon Ron and, and I think. I think his, his brother. It was Good. I think it's definitely obvious that, that Caleb wants Ben too. And while you're not going to give a second year quarterback like oh, the pick of the coach, there's. I think there's too much momentum that the Bears can't blow this that they need to. They hold out. Wait, but. [00:25:17] Speaker A: All right, you're right. [00:25:19] Speaker B: Yeah. [00:25:19] Speaker A: We can talk about Bears later. [00:25:21] Speaker B: I got my, I got my Bears taken, man. But that's, that's my selfish thing. Talk about the Lion. [00:25:25] Speaker A: No. Yeah. No, it was impressive. I was wondering if we're gonna go a different direction, but nope, it's not the Bears take. I'm impressed, dude. Never imagined my life I'd be talking about this much Chicago Bears football. But here we are. Life is beautiful. The Sundays playoff games. The Los Angeles Rams against the Philadelphia Eagles minus six for the Eagles. It's on NBC 43 and a half over under you guys got. [00:26:06] Speaker B: Man. Another, another tricky spread. [00:26:09] Speaker A: This has not moved at all by the way. [00:26:12] Speaker B: Funny on ESPN bet I see it started as minus 6 and now it's minus 6 and a half. But yeah, not like the others. I definitely like the Eagles to win the game, so I'll start with that. Okay. I, I think they have what it takes in the running game. The Rams showed a lot last last week with the, with the pass rush and stuff which is, you know, make you do a little double take that they got a chance in this game. I just think the Eagles have just kind of been. It's been a 12 class of the NFC all year. I know that Minnesota tried to throw their hat in but it was really, it was always Eagles, Lions when we talked about it and offensive line. Eagles have, it's been there such a strength for them for, for years and they lost Jason Kelce and they've been able to, you know, put a replacement in that really hasn't slowed it slowed them down from being like that mauling offensive line that really takes control of the game, man. I'll go to Aaron before I give you what the bet pick on that. But definitely Eagles win is going to be my overall pick for the game. [00:27:18] Speaker A: I'll keep you guys mine if you want or go ahead Aaron. [00:27:20] Speaker C: No, I mean I feel comfortable in taking fly Eagles fly this weekend. I mean these teams played what mid season here in Sofi and Saquon rushed for 255. Just destroyed him three touchdowns I believe in a 3720 Philadelphia victory. The Rams have grown up a lot defensively but asking a lot of the Rams, given all the situation going on here in la, the fires, they travel to Arizona, get a late night win there Monday, late travel back Tuesday. Now you're traveling all the way to Philadelphia. That's what, five, six hour flight? It's a lot to ask against a team that's more talented. Probably the team, like Jason just said, that's been top tier in the nfc, if not the NFL all year. Philly didn't look good last week. That was the week to get him. Jalen Hurts had missed three weeks of the concussion. He'll look better. I think Philly's going to be more focused. They'll be ready to go in this game. I, I like Philly to crush the Rams again. Say Goodbye to Stafford McVeigh. That train comes to an end and Philly moves on to the NFC championship game. I like Philly. Eagles minus six. [00:28:32] Speaker A: Yeah. Oh, go ahead, Jay. [00:28:34] Speaker B: Now, I was gonna say, I, I don't wanna, I don't wanna say that Aaron just swayed me on there. But while Aaron was giving his take, I was looking up the weather in Philadelphia this weekend because the other thing I'm thinking. Chilling. Yeah. Chilly and snowing. So you're talking about the indoor Sofi Rams going out to a, a brisk, you know, 27 degrees and snowfall in Philadelphia. I think that only favors that running game for Saquon. So I'll, I'll concur with Aaron. Before I interrupt you again. Rome. [00:29:05] Speaker A: No, I was just going to say right from the get go, man, I got Eagles more than covering. I got them blowing out the Rams. I don't think the Rams have had back to back good games home and then on the road. I'm going to call the Arizona game a road game, even though it's technically a home game. Yeah, Philly covers snow. It's going to be Saquon's game. He owns Philly now. Just one season in. Just imagine if he went there right from, right out of college, like what a legend he'd be. I'm really happy for him. [00:29:39] Speaker B: Aaron, what's the props for A.J. brown this weekend? [00:29:43] Speaker A: How many books or how many yards? [00:29:45] Speaker C: One book. It's just one book or do you want to know how many pages is he gonna get through reading? [00:29:49] Speaker A: I'm kind of impressed. He reads a book on the sideline to kind of refocus. That's kind of really cool. I dig that. [00:29:56] Speaker C: Okay, so what do you want to know on Brown receiving Yards. [00:30:00] Speaker B: Yeah, yards is fine. [00:30:02] Speaker C: Over under receiving guards is 69 and a half. [00:30:07] Speaker A: Kind of high for okay. [00:30:11] Speaker C: Receptions, four and a half. So there you have that. [00:30:20] Speaker A: That. Do you guys think it goes over 43 and a half? Wait, you guys both have Eagles covering, correct? [00:30:30] Speaker C: That's correct. [00:30:31] Speaker B: Yes. [00:30:32] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:30:34] Speaker B: 43 and a half's tough. I mean, you guys are both saying they're going to blow them out, but in these conditions and stuff like that, are you looking more of like a, you know, 27 to 13 game or something like that? That's sneaking on the under or even, Even less. [00:30:53] Speaker A: Just, just sloppy, possibly, man, that. I think that's the lowest one besides the Texas Chiefs. I wouldn't even be surprised if it was like a 2113 game. [00:31:08] Speaker C: Yeah, I feel like Philly's going to get closer to 30, so it feels like 27, 28. I mean, it's just one of these games of where they're at because Stafford, when he's down, if he knows they're out, he may just throw a pick six. Like he'll, he'll risk it. You know, once, once, you know, your season's almost done, you're going to take chances that normally you wouldn't because you got, you just. You got nothing to lose. It's either. You got to make the plays, so. [00:31:39] Speaker A: That's true. How come the Vikings didn't do that for the second half of their game against the Rams? Or my Steelers didn't do that. [00:31:50] Speaker C: Steelers did. Yeah, I think the Vikings. It's interesting. Yeah, they were just wanting to get out of there. They just, I mean, like we said, Sam Darnold got sacked nine times. You don't want to get him hurt. [00:32:01] Speaker A: Dude. I, Yeah, I don't know why I brought it up, but it was just the top of my mind though. Like you say, there's an urgency there, but they just mail that thing in. [00:32:09] Speaker C: Yeah. [00:32:09] Speaker A: That's so weird to see a 14 team one. Mail it in. All right. Last game, Baltimore Ravens, one point favorites against the Buffalo Bills, 51 one half over under. This has, has this moved a little bit? This has. I think the Bills were favorite at least in the beginning, and now it's Balt. [00:32:29] Speaker C: I think the Ravens have been favored the whole time. [00:32:33] Speaker B: I think Rome's right. I think it initially opened Bills minus one, but then flipped to plus one. [00:32:39] Speaker C: Yeah, I've seen, I've seen Baltimore favored by one a lot some places, one and a half. [00:32:44] Speaker B: But yeah, I mean, it's basically a pick him game regardless of where you put in this one point. [00:32:49] Speaker A: So, yeah, this is a tough game. The over under is intriguing. We've seen both these teams overthink big games and lie on field goal kicking especially. What are you guys thinking? Jason? I. I love like the. The amber lighting. [00:33:11] Speaker B: Thanks. [00:33:12] Speaker A: It's all dark over there. [00:33:13] Speaker B: Wow. When you got us recording a podcast at 12:30, you know, just get it, get it. Appreciate it. It's the late night after. After dark. [00:33:21] Speaker A: Sources from the sofa got some candles. [00:33:24] Speaker B: Yeah, man. You know, I think we talked about it on the last pod. This should be the AFC championship game. We should be in Rome's. We should be in Rome's. Chiefs out of the way. Your guys's Texans, they're not up to the challenge this year. Like, this is the game we want to see for the Bills. This is the venue they want it at. I mean we gotta. We just have the. The Philadelphia weather check. I only want to imagine what it is in Buffalo, New York. [00:34:00] Speaker C: 20 degrees with some snow. With some snow flurries. [00:34:04] Speaker B: Yeah. High of 21 on Sunday, low of 13. So I don't know at what point it's 13. Luckily this game ends at 7. At 7pm Eastern. Or else it probably is close to that 13. Buffalo undefeated at home this year. [00:34:21] Speaker A: Impressive. And the epic. What was that Thursday night game? The snow. [00:34:27] Speaker B: Yes. It's hard for me not to pick against Josh Allen in this game, but at the same time you can say the same argument with Lamar Jackson since. Hey, These are the 12 in MVP. Lamar probably wins for since from the statistics. But Josh, as we talked about a couple podcasts ago, has had these moments in the game. It just feels like there's a ton of things going right for Baltimore this year. And. And I'll say the kicker is going to be. This game being in the snow or I'm sorry, just in Buffalo. [00:35:03] Speaker A: Is that like a joke? [00:35:05] Speaker B: But like the kicker. [00:35:06] Speaker A: Yeah. Or. [00:35:07] Speaker B: Well, it could be. I mean we're gonna give a hot take on it. Does it come down to whether Justin Tucker actually found his form there at the end? And it's Tucker versus Bass, you know, kicking in the snow. You know that. That could be. That could be the thing. Last pot I mentioned, I hate field. [00:35:21] Speaker A: Goals as snow games. It just reminds me the Patriots. [00:35:24] Speaker B: Patriots. Raiders, Yeah. [00:35:27] Speaker A: I hate to talk about that game. I hate seeing it. They robbed the super bowl away for the Raiders. I was actually kind of rooting for that team. [00:35:34] Speaker C: That highlight should be banned. Like you shouldn't be. It shouldn't be able to pull it up on YouTube or even in the. [00:35:40] Speaker A: I should retroactively just take one of Tom Brady's Rings. That one right there. Miles. Commissioner. All right, go ahead, Jason. Go ahead. [00:35:51] Speaker B: I don't even know where I was going with this at this point. I. The running. The running back matchup or the showdown? [00:35:58] Speaker A: Cook. [00:35:59] Speaker B: Cook versus Henry. Henry's getting all the pub, as he rightfully should. But Cook has been the playmaker this year that Josh Allen needed. That we all kind of question who was going to be the step up with digs being gone and those next guys. He's had a few wide receivers step up, too, but Cook's really been the guy and I think he gives them the element where when Josh Allen decides to tuck it and run it, you really have to be honest and honor what Cook's doing in the running game as well, too. And so I think a lot of the matchups you'll talk to is like, oh, it's Lamar and Henry and that's the advantage. But I think it's a lot closer in kind of that running game fashion between the two. It can go either way, but I'm going to take Buffalo. [00:36:44] Speaker A: Wow. All right. [00:36:49] Speaker C: I've been going back and forth, man. There's so many different angles to look at this game coming in. I mean, they met back in week four. First play of the game on offense. 87 yard TD run for Derek Henry. Just Baltimore blew him out. You know, Jason mentioned the weather, 20 degrees, maybe as low as 10 degrees with wind chill, snowy conditions. Lamar, typically in cold weather games does not play very well. We know Josh Allen does perform, so that has me a bit worried. Zay Flowers has not practiced still. I don't think he's going to play. So he's going to miss a second consecutive game here in the playoff. That's a big weapon for them out there on the perimeter. You know, Cook for Buffalo, he's been great. I don't think he's going to do much in the run game. I think where they got an advantage there is use him in the past game, see if they can get him matched up on some linebackers outside. He's got underrated speed. He can hurt you with some will routes and other things going there. And then Baltimore, they just feel like with Henry, a different team. Like before, it felt like Lamar's team. Now it's Lamar and Derek Henry's team. I think he can have a big game running. Buffalo's undersized on the defensive front. Quick but undersized. We'll see how that shapes up here in the snow. And you know, you guys almost stole my line. I think it's going to come down to the kickers and Bass has choked big time in the playoffs. Tucker, we want to know if he's back. I say he is back. I say Tucker's a difference in this one. He gets Baltimore the victory. I'm going to go 24, 22 Baltimore late field goal to advance to the AFC championship game. [00:38:39] Speaker A: Wow, 24, 22. That's interesting to score. [00:38:42] Speaker C: Yeah, I think it's, it's the over under is a little high given the weather conditions. 51 1/2 you said. Yeah, yeah, that's, that's a lot of points given the conditions are here. Both defenses are pretty good. So I like, I like the under. [00:39:00] Speaker A: I love it. Jason's dogs are going crazy every time. [00:39:03] Speaker C: Aaron talks though, always about like Baltimore too or something. Right? Or kicker take. I don't think they like kickers. [00:39:11] Speaker B: He doesn't want to hear you talk about kickers at 12:30 at night. [00:39:14] Speaker C: Yeah, I don't blame them. I don't like talking about kickers at 12:30 at night. [00:39:19] Speaker A: Are at 12:30. This would be like a stay away game for me if this is the regular season. You got the Ravens, man, they finally, I feel like they finally have a really complete team to win us through. But not, not only does this win it like everyone would be in agreement that like they're a great team. One of the best teams, Buffalo, it's a young team, long road ahead of them to still compete for a Super Bowl. We thought they're window closed with the change of the guards, talent left, got a whole bunch of new draftees, rookie sightings. They've done a hell of a job, their front office and revamping this team and surrounding Allen with the talent that, that he could develop. My mind is telling me that the Ravens come out with the victory. Lamar finally gets over the hump or I don't know if this is considered game with a hump goes to a back to back conference championship game. But it's in Buffalo. It's going to be cold. Allen has not shown any reason that he would throw a flop of a game this late in the season. He's hardly ever done it his career already. Whereas that's not the case with Lamar. My mind is telling me Ravens. My heart is telling me Buffalo. That's where I'm at. [00:40:59] Speaker C: I'm just curious. I haven't looked it up but has Lamar Jackson ever won a road playoff game with the Ravens? [00:41:11] Speaker A: That's a great question. Let's. [00:41:15] Speaker C: Because I know these two teams met in the Playoffs, I want to say it was Kobe the year, maybe the year after Covid and Buffalo beat them, but to my best of my knowledge, I don't think Lamar Jackson's won a road playoff game. [00:41:36] Speaker A: He does have one win on the road. Yeah, 2021. You're right. So this the second year of COVID I don't know. It's all blur for that stuff. They were on the road against the Tennessee Titans. [00:41:52] Speaker C: Okay. [00:41:53] Speaker A: That was the AFC wild card game. [00:41:57] Speaker C: Okay. And then I think the next game that got beat by the Bills in that divisional round. Right. In 2021 might have been 2022, but. Okay, so he does have a road playoff win. I can't remember. [00:42:11] Speaker A: Yeah, they lost to Buffalo. You're absolutely right about that. [00:42:14] Speaker C: Yeah, I remember that game. I mean, I know he lost obviously last year to the Chiefs. He lost back in 2018. 2019 to Philip Rivers and the Chargers at home. [00:42:25] Speaker A: Yep. Yeah, that. [00:42:29] Speaker C: He, he, he did not play against the Bengals in 23. [00:42:35] Speaker A: It's not showing up on his record right now. [00:42:37] Speaker C: Yeah, he wasn't playing that game. So. Yeah, that he remember. He was hurting. I think Hunley took over. But yeah, so he does have one playoff road win. Okay. [00:42:45] Speaker A: One playoff road win. [00:42:47] Speaker C: It just wasn't sure. I mean, most of the time the Ravens were playing a lot of home games, so. [00:42:51] Speaker A: Yeah, because I have to be Tennessee, they're on the road to Buffalo. Lost 2024. So it was three year gap between playoff appearances. [00:43:01] Speaker C: Okay. [00:43:02] Speaker A: He beat on Houston and then lost to the Chiefs. The Chiefs in the AFC championship game. [00:43:11] Speaker C: Okay. [00:43:12] Speaker A: Yeah. So one playoff road win. All right. Just so you know, Jason, since you bounced out for like a few seconds, I said my mind or my brain says Raven Swin. But my heart is rooting for Buffalo. I don't know if that's a cop. [00:43:32] Speaker B: Out or not, but it's not. Honestly, it is by sentiment as well. Like, I really, I would like to see either one of these teams win. [00:43:42] Speaker A: I'm actually okay with either team going on. [00:43:44] Speaker B: Yeah. Yeah. Like I, I could say if either one of these teams, if you have to root for a team, like to win the Super Bowl, I'd be good for either of them. Baltimore's got this history of winning, you know, they've won two Super Bowls and our kind of adulthood. Buffalo hasn't had this. And like, you know, you. Buffalo's got. Just got that endearing fan base, man. The people in the tailgate, Bill's mafia, you know, they had all the heartbreak in their, you know, in the early 90s with everything. Like, they just feel like, man, this fan base kind of deserves it. I think that's where the heart comes from when you're talking through Buffalo, Baltimore. I don't know if you guys already said this for just. Just for Lamar, like, hey, this guy's MVP of the league, has been, you know, one of the best players in the league, if not the best player, the past couple years. And, you know, if he doesn't win, the conversation just like, oh, he can't do it in the playoffs. He can't do it in the playoffs. This guy isn't great. No, he's. He's outstanding. And so it just. These are the moments that's going to matter. So it's going to suck whichever guy loses, because that's what they're going to be stuck with. But at the end of the day, like, I'd be good with either one of them winning and probably going to the Super Bowl. [00:44:52] Speaker A: Yeah, that's fair. All right, so that's the NFL divisional round. Any final thoughts? Comments? [00:45:04] Speaker B: I think we said it all. [00:45:05] Speaker A: Yeah, we did say a lot. I'm impressed.